Monkeys on foot. I'm done a lot of the hard work that I've been
doing in the previous months. The market things basically in a year's time inflation can be back up to 1 1/2 percent. We still
think that the Fed has more to go and then also will ease policy the less next year. I do have confidence the federal eventually
do it's necessary and that will ultimately get back to something close to 2 percent.
The real divergence comes in 2023 where the
market is pricing rate cuts and the Fed is expecting to continue to hike. This is Bloomberg Surveillance with Tom Keene Jonathan
Ferro and Lisa Abramowicz. Harry Kane in one direction. Matt Miller is killing me this
morning. Live from New York City. Good morning. Good morning for our
audience worldwide. This is Bloomberg Surveillance alongside some Kane. I'm Jonathan Ferro together with a pretty and lines
premiere. Back with us on Monday. T.K. if you wanted to quiet into the week you know getting hit on the S&P with down eight
tenths of one percent on the NASDAQ 100 down we'll full percentage point.
Forget about the flow to the summer weekend.
John I'm worrying tweeted. I broke out the tweet John because I just saw the first leaves in Central Park beginning to change
yesterday. And this is the beginning of autumn. And you saw it yesterday afternoon with the real collapse of the currency
market. It continues this morning. We can go through a john. To me the emerging market the United Kingdom is the litmus paper
this morning for the stress within the European system.
I want people up this morning don't you. A.M. The UK autumn started on
August 19th. T.K. called me yesterday. She was happy that the leaves are changing color in Central Park. They park hold of
that time. This from Barclays. A little bit earlier this morning Stokes may face a reality check next week. That Chairman Powers
speech confirmed for next Friday 10:00 a.m. Eastern Time. Very carefully John. I use the Dow Jones Industrial Average for this
because it's just a bigger and more clumsy proxy than aspects. And the answer is the Dow even with the three days of stress
sits between a solid moving average and two standard deviations up. So we're really technically not at a stress point yet for
those markets. But I take the point a week from now you could be there. CAC is going to straighten a A on the Fed speak. Kiley
the Federal Reserve is upside down. You've got St. George saying we risk doing too much and you've got Neel Kashkari saying we
need to do more. Shouldn't those to be saying the other thing.
Right. We've seen a metamorphosis of really remarkable one for
the hawks in the doves. Neel Kashkari used to be one of the most devilish members of the Federal Reserve and is now out saying I
want four point four percent in 2023. And he forgot Jim Bullard yesterday as well John.
He of course has been the pusher from the beginning the first to vocalize that he wanted to move a 50 basis points. Now he's
saying in September I want to go 75 again.
Good to hear from Chairman Powell. Maybe he can straighten things out for us a
week from today. We'll be in Jackson Hole Wyoming for you as we count you down to that big event next week. Has the price action
to close out this week with negative eight tenths of one percent on the S&P 500 on the NASDAQ 100 down one full percentage point
yields bleeding higher on a 10 year ticket by 4 basis points to 90 to 43. You got a tennis when you ran a cash home trade 89
handed down by one point four per cent and euro dollar. All of a sudden caddy lines looking at piracy once again. Yet we are not
even at one point 0 1 on euro dollar. So definitely something to watch as Europe of course deals with
an energy crisis and the UK is dealing with a cost of living crisis and that is resulting to a summer of strikes. We have
already seen it and it is continuing today. A London Underground strike happening for one day only. Plus you have pilots for
easyJet in Spain starting a three day strike today.
It really speaks to the high cost pressures consumers are facing in pretty
much everything about their daily lives. They want higher wages as a result is causing some real issues with labour in certain
European economies. That is speaking of the economy one very economically sensitive company will be reporting earnings this
morning dear out at six forty five a.m. Eastern Time. It of course is the biggest maker of agricultural machinery. How is it
working through inflation pressures and of course ongoing supply chain challenges to this point. It has been able to increase the
cost. It charges to its customers and farmers have been willing to pay up because demand for food is so high.
But how much does
that continue and what does the outlook look like going forward. Then finally at 9:00 a.m. Eastern time the Federal Reserve
president of Richmond Tom Barkin will be speaking. Who is he going to echo. Is he going to be more on the camp investor
George where they don't want to go too far too fast or more like John Bowler who wants to move 75 basis points come September. I
think the broad theme for these Fed speakers that regardless of whether they want to move 50 or 75 next month John they are
really trying to push back on a market that thinks they're going to cool things off. They are all still broadly saying we have
more work to do to get inflation down. And they've repeated that act repeatedly over the last month or so. Candy are we done with
earnings season after today. Is that it. Pretty much. Here's the unofficial close. We have more than 95 percent of companies in
the S&P 500. So it's pretty sleepy from here. Is going to round up for you a little bit later this morning. If you're just
tuning get good morning.
Equity futures down eight tenths of one percent on the S&P on the NASDAQ was down about one full
percentage point. Joining us now is set Gaffney the senior macro strategist on the data asset management said let's start here.
You think the shocks ahead of us where I'm well in this market do you think he's vulnerable to those shocks. Well if you look
at how the market is evolving it's trying to build a sense of confidence where are you going to get it. Maybe a recession a
significant slowdown. Then when we pick up and we know that once you can figure out when you get a pickup in economic activity in
2023 2024 then it's awesome time for equities typically because the Fed actually is reducing interest rates and we're trying to
trade way in advance of what we know. The reality is between now and probably six months we don't actually know how to control
inflation because we don't know what a neutral rate is. You. Getting a bigger debate within the Fed.
Their models are
extremely primitive and they just don't know. And so the consequence is they have to hike much more than we expect. So 75
basis points is more likely. And we're probably going to see the Fed chairman next week confirming that view that they need first
to tighten probably around 3 percent then a long pause to assess the impact of our interests and decrease shocks. But it's also
opportunities. So if you're in Luxembourg you're one of the most interesting continental people we speak to. How do you use the
signals of foreign exchange and particularly what we've seen literally in the last 18 hours.
So what it tells you if you look
in the currency market is that is starting to trade like emerging market particularly if you look at the UK and you look
of course at Turkey which is deep at the deep end. If you want to call it within emerging markets higher yield higher risk
Ireland with people who take unorthodox measures. What it tells you is as volatility rises in the ethics market
from a very sleepy market it's something which is not very attractive for a lot of people to invest in to try to profit
If they start to get worried then that sympathy of forewarning for other asset class and volatility may be ahead of
us. It's not necessarily the case but there are different cannery in the coal mines at different points in time in the
business cycle effects. In the past has proven an interesting one but not necessarily a very relevant one. Why. Because in
many cases it's short term in its views on the ethics side within G10 emerging markets a little bit more forward looking
and sometimes it's also very forward looking. So if it was easy people would have back tested it and we'd already be priced in.
There are interesting elements within the ethics market that is starting trade like an emerging market and long dollar trade
which we all know. It's interesting it's worth the study but it's not necessarily the big thing that's going to explode.
but it seems that a lot of the dollar strength we're seeing is no longer driven necessarily by the central bank or rate
differential story. It's just about risk sentiment and a demand for haven. Other than the dollar where can you find reliable
safety. Swiss franc Norwegian krona. So north of Europe and south of you
are in the sense of Switzerland. Switzerland is just an awesome place in general. See value high quality of credit. Just
freakishly awesome to live in Switzerland in general. Tom Keene going to want to be you know. So why aren't you living in
Switzerland. Said something that I mean I made a huge mistake. So we could do a remote from Brasserie Lip in Zurich. I think
that would really work out. The people know not listening this morning. Do you hear that somebody made a huge mistake. I have
to move this year. Sebastian Ganley if not the asset management stepped right to
catch up sir. As always T.K. did you read Marco Mark Gurman of J.P. Morgan yesterday. No I missed that.
I wrote on a simple
basic to this for a line. I'm not sure who this is. For while the perception is the bears were vindicated this year one should
keep in mind that price targets for year end and not entry year lows. T.K. some fire the team with JP Morgan. But that's the
emotion. I like it. That's the emotion that his clients or his peers. I think it's people recalibrating around clients who are
miserable. How many people John are X basis points below the bogey which is
typically the S&P 500 not the Dow Jones Industrial Average. And John they're miserable. They're going into Q3 and they're going
to make it up by year end to make the bone or keep their job. That's where this tension comes from. Kelly I'll get to the
market. Given our core view that there will be no global recession and that inflation will ease the variable that matters
the most is positioning. He went on to say and positioning is still very low. Well that
raises the question of what exactly has been the driver of the rally we have seen over the last two months.
Is it really just a
short squeeze because people were so so bearish maybe overly pessimistic. And now as things start to turn in a more
optimistic direction whether it's about a double pivot from the Federal Reserve or earnings that weren't that bad all of that
positioning had to unwind to a certain extent. So if he thinks that he has further to go he thinks that's going to drive us up
to 48 hundred year end. And we know that there are plenty out there who he may or may not be speaking to who are well below
Kasey Barrow I think nailed it yesterday on this program. She said the big difference between the market and this
Fed is 2023. The market's looking for cuts. The Fed saying it's a whole strategy. President of the San Francisco Fed addressed
this yesterday Tom. I really think of the race and hold strategy as one that has historically paid off for us. So we get the hold
part of this. It's the race to walk race to wall on how some and maybe we get some indication of that from Chairman Pound next
week. Again why access on radio. I got an arm up. That's the y axis. I got an elbow out. That's the x axis dailies on the x
axis. So as Jim Bullard with a more optimistic view of the economy John these people are extending out like the phrase
extend and pretend they're not pretending they're extending out to use time to heal the economy after the pandemic.
Less ramp up
earning season. T.K. Deer just drop it. Yeah out a little bit early with EPS of about six sixteen a share. What's interesting
is it actually has revised lower its outlook for earnings here when it comes to net income for the full year. The stock is down
in premarket as a result. I'm just looking through the statement to see as to why. We know obviously this is very inflation and
supply chain sensitive company.
He says our results reflect higher costs and production inefficiencies driven by the
difficult supply chain situation. That is according to the chairman and CEO John may endure right now down about one point
two percent for the bottom line. It's okay. They changed the range. The range for year. And full year net to come in at seven
point 0 0 billion dollars to seven point two billion the range previously was seven billion to seven point for the estimate.
Seven point one three Joel Weber.
You know you mentioned One Direction earlier. John what Harry and Liam did you know. But
like when you and I met in Davos that was it. That was a one direction. You know when I first saw you from across the room I
could tell you were ambitious about euros NYSE. John I hope you're sure what you're looking for because the Dow Jones
Industrial Average Terrence Thomas way of saying you Harry styles tickets for this weekend. I do. I have here Harry. You
know it it's it's just you know I go in one direction. It's an X-Factor type moment. So that was good. Some K K he likes
Jonathan Ferro Rameau happy. She's F features down 8 cents of 1 per cent. From New York this is Bloomberg.
Keeping you up to date with news from around the world.
With the best word answers could get Fed officials are offering mixed
signals about the next interest rate increase. A two day meeting is set for September the 20th. One of the most hawkish
policymakers St. Louis Fed President James Bullard backs a big move. He told The Wall Street Journal there should be another 75
basis point hike. Meanwhile Kansas City's George was more cautious. She said the Fed has already done a
lot of tightening. The stakes just rose for November's G. 20 summit in Bali. The confirmation came from Indonesia's president
Joko Widodo. In an interview with Bloomberg's editor in chief John
Micklethwait I know that you have invited President Xi Jinping to come to the G 20.
Has he. Has he said he will come here in
November yet. Xi Jinping will come out that day. And President Putin
President Putin has also told me he will comment. She and Putin's presence would set up a showdown with President Biden
and other leaders opposed to Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Meanwhile European intelligence officials say Russia is probably
using a nuclear power plant in southern Ukraine to shield troops and equipment. That's a tactic that undermines security at the
plant. The nuclear facility is Europe's largest. The US UK and EU have demanded access to the plant for international
inspectors. A good team of confidence in the UK has fallen to a record low.
JFK said its gauge of confidence declined three
points to minus 44 in August. That's the lowest since records began in 1974. Concerns about a recession Greece and soaring
inflation tighten the squeeze on household finances. Governing is 24 hours a day on and on. Bloomberg Quicktake an hour to keep
you up to. This is Glenn Beck. I don't think we're in a recession right now but as we continue
to raise rates as we continue to raise costs so to speak of borrowing across the economy it should be putting tapping the
brakes on the U.S. economy. And that makes it more likely that we will end up in a recession. Neel Kashkari there the
Minneapolis Fed president rounding up some of the Fed speak from yesterday from New York City this morning.
Good morning with
some Keenan and nine some Jonathan Ferro futures down eight tenths of one per cent on the S&P on the NASDAQ 100 down about
nine tenths of one percent on the S&P just about set to squeeze out a fifth straight week of gains the longest weekly winning
streak of the year so far Tom wrap up and a tenth of one per cent after the close yesterday. A little fragile to say the
least. The VIX artistic twenty point five. And I don't know what to make of it John. I can't correlate the foreign exchange gloom
that we're seeing right now. The equity markets haven't clicked in yet.
Did you see Jordan Rochester of Nomura this morning.
What do you say. I look at the downside on the euro dollar from 1 0 0 6 2 down to something like 97 by the end of September. He
just does not think we're priced for the recession they expect. And what do they do when they get to 98 97 in terms of re re
recalibrating. Right now we're going to recalibrate in Washington. We do this with Jack Fitzpatrick Bloomberg
government reporter. Jack designed ghost into the weekend is on a Senate that the Republicans were sure to take. They're not.
And what they talk about is candidate quality. Dumb question serious question of a Friday morning in the summer. Jack who
picks the candidates. All that depends. In this case I think one of the challenges
you're you're alluding to is that at least indirectly former President Trump. If he doesn't pick the candidates has a huge
huge hand in Republican primary victors.
And as it pertains to the Senate outlook you know you look to Pennsylvania where the
Cook Political Report just nudged that from a toss up to a lean Democrat in the race. And it does look like Matt ISE is
struggling a bit. Not polling particularly well there. There is a factor of Trump weighing so heavily over
primaries Republican primaries that it can have a bit of a warping effect. Right. The most electable person might be in the
general election. The Senate might be an axis of Trump and McConnell. Is there a McConnell part of House Republicans or
does President Trump own the House.
The House has been more Trump defied than the Senate. To what
extent and do they move away from him. That's a big question. Maybe the midterms will help answer. But if you look at the the
impact that Trump has had on the party in a variety of ways in the way some members talk about foreign affairs in the way they
talk about fiscal policy the Senate Republicans are still a bit more of the old guard Mitch McConnell types. McConnell is the
leader of that caucus whereas Kevin McCarthy and the House Republicans
I think by virtue of the fact that the House has elections every two years rather than six shifted more quickly to the kind of
stances you see President Trump taking. They've been aligned more quickly with Trump in the House. Well on the subject of
President Trump a bit of an interesting day in regards to developments around him. Jack first you had a judge staying at
least part of that affidavit related to the search of Mar a Lago needs to be released.
And then you also had the CFO of the Trump
Organization Allen Vice Wahlberg pleading guilty to tax fraud. Which of those is of greater consequence to Trump himself.
I think overall Trump himself the Mar a Lago issues are of greater consequence at least just because the the plea deal with
Alan Weisberg it means that he has to testify against the Trump organization. But that has not extended to Trump himself.
There's much more of a possibility at least that's apparent right now in implicating the former president himself in these
issues regarding taking top secret documents from the White House if he didn't do it.
There must have been somebody who did
it. That's an issue that affects the former president personally much more clearly. Although the Trump organization issues can
extend to him there are a number of issues that I'm sure he is concerned about. But the Mar a Lago stuff could be directly
facing him. And of course the Department of Justice in regard to that affidavit did not want it released because they said it
would impede the investigation.
Do we expect there to still be a battle over this or is this now a done deal.
This is very much an ongoing issue. For one the judge in this case has said he's not inclined to fully keep the details of the
affidavit secret. But there's a there's going to be a debate about how much they can redact. So the Justice Department has
until Thursday of next week to say here's what we want to redact. If they were to go overboard and say well let's put this
out but we redact absolutely everything. It could end up being taken out of their hands and the judge would make the decision
on how much information to put out. So there is still a huge X factor in terms of how much information goes out to the public
if this really does affect continuing investigations in terms of revealing how they got the tip that these documents could have
been in Mar a Lago.
There's there are probably many other shoes to drop in that investigation. Jack thank you sir. Jack
Fitzpatrick down in D.C. RTS serious issues less serious one. Katie if you've seen the video of Dr. Mehmet Oz do the shopping
make a little grocery shopping. What did he call the grocery store. Wetness. Wetness. There were two stores Redness and
Wegmans. And he just sort of mixed them together because people assume he's actually not from there. Yeah I'm not going to
comment on that John. All I will say is get a cart or a basket or something. You weren't happy about the fact you did it just
with things in his arms. You know you're very critical. It's more wrong with it than that. That one little thing. Take. Have
you seen that video. Yeah. As he goes around shopping for the details I think a lot of it is trying to do all campaign style
in a new modern day with a speed of social media not just the old. I'm not sure the old stuff works.
Joel Weber. Do you have
asparagus with Soundsystem. That's what I want to know. Why asparagus. Do you have that with salsa. Because that was the
shot that he was you haven't seen half the time. You need to catch up with American politics. I'm just I'm not. I'm
surprisingly easy listening to wonder. But you're not then. Well you know Harry's got something new on and into his new project.
You got to watch him here in New York. He dropped a couple days ago. See you know the language. Well you have to spot a fortune.
Got it. You guys got that. Caylee would take care of the rest. I'll take care. The markets were down about eight tenths of one
per cent on the S&P 500 on the NASDAQ 100 down about nine tenths of 1 percent this morning. Equities a bit softer as we look to
try and squeeze out a week of gains. We're looking at a day of losses that could take count that week of gains.
Michael Hartnett of Bank of America this morning. Bear reps always narrow of the seventeen point four percent gain we've had
off the lows just for stocks. Apple Microsoft Amazon and Tesla. Tom contributed 30 percent of the game. He is way correct. It
has been incredibly narrow. We're gonna catch up with Steve SHAPIRO Federated in just a moment on that story. Looking
forward to doing that right now. Features lower from New York City. Good morning to you. Head on radio seen on TV.
sizzling back. This is staff from Michael Barr and Bank of America on the team
and good morning to you. Forty 43 bear market rallies of more than 10 percent since 1929. The average seventeen point two
percent. What if we just had off the lows. Seventeen point four percent. What is Michael Hartnett say.
Textbook. Textbook bear market rally. We pull back now. Futures down a tenths of one percent on the S&P 500 on the NASDAQ down
about nine tenths of one percent. Bear witness to close out the week as we anticipate what Chairman Power will or will not say
next week. That speech has been confirmed in Jackson Hole at 10:00 a.m. Eastern Time. Oh he'll be there next Friday. He will
be dancing with me. Not zooming. How do I look. Okay. I'm doing it on my Dr.
Oz look. What are you doing. I'm carrying all my
stuff. Now you've seen the video. Most guys now get out. And we can talk more about that in a moment. Yeah I love this. This is
ridiculous. Anyway let's get to the bond market. Take stands in 30s shaping up as follows. Two year yields last Friday 320 for
your typical yield this morning 320 for your to year. It's done a lot of the way but is close in basically where we were last
Friday. Yields this morning at five basis points on a two year tenure of four basis points as well. That curve inversion just
eases a little bit for the wait just a little bit with a 10 year climb to get a bit higher as the bond market went to finish and
foreign exchange to take a trip to Europe.
Both cable and Eurodollar Sterling U.K. consumer confidence the
lowest since 1974. Just think about that brutal sterling one 1852. That's a quite
slight sum. We haven't talked about that much at DAX. Six tenths of a big deal on euro sterling where you triangulate them over.
It's stronger euro versus sterling. I mean yeah it's a joke. But come command United Kingdom is an emerging market. This needs to
be discussed. Just like Katie with the set right now.
I don't know if you heard Jack but you know I was laughing too hard at
putting things apart from the RTS CAC. We got to go. You're right. All it negative 34 percent. You know we got about parity.
You know we got to do a McKinsey study and see if we can get a Keeley cam. Put it like a promo CAC. Like you get you know just
Katie tearing up the set. Brown getting annoyed at equity market BOVESPA Kailey Leinz on pay per view. There hasn't been enough
gloom with Kailey Leinz this week so we're going to go to Steve Shiver en route now.
Her multi-year solutions at Federated
Farmers. And Steve what's so important here is Steve off in all of your stock leadership are inherently optimistic about the
American experiment about the owning of equities. But right now Federated as a gauze of gloom over everything is
that gloom a three year horizon or is it a six month horizon. No I think it's I think it's somewhere in that kind of 6 to 12
month range. I mean. We are bulls and we have been bulls for the better part of 15 years structurally because we think that's
right. Markets move higher three quarters of the time and there's unlimited upside. But when we look at the economic
conditions and the market conditions in front of us it leads us to a more cautious place. And we've got to be objective there.
And that's right. Here is a bit more cautious than we've been historically. Just as a blended idea what is your cash position.
Are you running long.
Only by side 2 4 percent cash. If you blown it out or you're in with a general counsel saying we got
to be a 15 percent cash. Or is it in between where you as cash percentage.
Yes. So within our mainstream asset allocation models you know where we're somewhere pushing towards 10 percent cash which on
the high end of the range and go. I mean I think we I think we'd like to put that to work. It's
longer duration treasuries. But I suspect if the Fed continues with this dovish rhetoric and
the market starts warming to the idea that they're going to be hiking for a little bit longer you're going to get a higher
yield that will allow us to buy those treasuries at more attractive prices. But that's one of the trades that we're
looking towards. Steve if you've got a historical parallel the clean safe right now does anything work.
What's the playbook.
Look I mean I think you've got lessons from a bunch of things. If you look out at the world right now you've got geopolitics
like you know 1939. You've got a tech valuations that look like nineteen ninety nine. You've got inflation that looks like 1979.
So I mean there's there's a number of historic parallels. I think what we're looking at is how is the Fed really going to
come down here. You know they run a risk and I know that they're worried about over tightening which they should be but they run
a risk if they pull up too soon of repeating the stop and go errors of the 70s.
On the other hand if they go too far too fast you know the recession that comes could be more severe. I think the thing to
keep in mind is there are the nine hike cycle since 1970.
Seven of them ended in a recession. And the two that didn't certainly
felt like recessions. So that's that's what that's your starting point Steve. John has brought up the latest reaches out of
Michael Hartnett of Bank of America a couple of times this morning. And one of the lines is this note was very few fear of
the Fed. And I'm wondering is we're having a conversation about over tightening. Is the market expectation that the Fed isn't
going to want to over tighten as a result. Equities are rallying financial conditions are easing actually going to be the thing
that causes the Fed to over tighten because they have to rein that it.
You know the Fed's actions this year haven't you know they've been pretty reasonable.
I think they were late starting. But you
know the aggressiveness with which they've hiked has been reasonable but their rhetoric and their communication strategy
has left a lot to be desired. So all the peaks that we talk about I think it's peak fed credibility that we have to worry
about. What I mean by that is you know you're in a scenario where the Fed's at will if we're not back and off until we have
compelling evidence that inflation is heading back down to 2 percent. We go from nine point one to eight point five on the
back of a little bit of softer commodity prices in the minutes are reflecting you know debate about how far we should go.
There's a disconnect there. And then even with the members you have the Fed chair Paul saying we're close to neutral press
conference and then every Fed governor comes out afterwards and essentially contradicts him.
So it would be nice to have a much
more consistent communication strategy because you're right the market is doubting in either direction in line with their own
bias what the Fed's going to do. And they're not helping. So he has an opportunity in Jackson Hole once again to try to provide
some more direction or a consistent voice. We'll see if he does it. Yeah. So if there's a mispricing in the equity market that's
too optimistic about the Fed pivot. What about the bond market. Because we have seen yields moving pretty substantially higher
off the lows. I mean we're back at two ninety three on the tenure. What's appropriate given your expectations of Fed
policy. Yeah look I think when you look historically you've never gotten
high inflation under control without a federal funds rate that exceeds the inflation rate. I don't think we're going to 10
percent. I think inflation will come down as the economy slows. But you've gotta start with you know the market has only allowed
itself to price in three three seventy five in terms of the terminal rate here.
I think that number's probably got to go
closer to four four and a half. And so as the market prices that in I think you're going to see yields rise. And it's not just
the level it's the duration. I think it's right. The Fed will at some point cut because growth is slowing too quickly. I just
don't think that that's a first half of 2023 event. I think at the earliest that's kind of late 2023 in that.
So rates I think
are going to go higher. I think they're going to be there for longer. And I think the bond market has one more opportunity to
kind of price that in at which point we would probably buy those treasuries as we think they'd rally on that economic slowdown.
Steve I've got a two a one K with the way I've been in cash for so much. It just hasn't worked out for retirement plans. Are you
reallocate me here or not. I mean with a three year five year perspective do you get cute in late 2000 20 to.
Yeah I think for a retirement plan for a longer term plan what you're trying to do right now is be defensive and then gorge.
Next year I think you're going to see high yield bonds in the back part of next year really attractive yields.
You know the
thing about a three year federal funds or a three year treasury a peak and then you can have spreads and that can eat 900 basis
points range. Those are going to be attractive. I think you're going to be able to buy tech stocks under 20 times earnings. Are
you going to be a little by cyclicals. And so it's it's not getting too cute now. It's been close to neutral staying close
to the vest for neutral stocks versus bonds. We're overweight cash. And then when sentiment is really poor you know at some
point next year we would look to kind of gorge on those risk assets and set those portfolios up for a long term run.
just we're just not there yet. I think just finally and quickly then what would you sound today to raise cash for the
opportunities you expect tomorrow. Yeah look I think this. I think the rally we've seen in some of these tech stocks they're
just too high. They're still trading at 25 times. And we think they've got to trade somewhere closer to 19. So we would be
inclined to sell CAC here and for the time being by defensive dividend paying stocks.
And that's that that's the sell. What
ran here was the junk outside those couple of big names that are high quality CAC. But in general that's run as the junk. And I
would say that in favor of higher quality equities and higher quality bonds. Steve how do you feel about asparagus with
tequila. SS How does that work.
I think that's right. I think it's blasphemy. I don't want any part. I like Mike Gill and
Meat. He's a fan. How much do you like your asparagus cooked as well. Dave Chef run. Yeah. What. Certainly not raw. Definitely
not rules. Dave Scheffer on that Federated T.K.. John can I weigh in here please. Literally honest to God one of the Wegmans
way way back was a camp mate of mine and a right long ago. And far as Wegmans is a Rochester New York institution that everyone
respects within the food business. Here's a reality I think Amy we've got the video here of the senator the senator to be I
should say in Pennsylvania. And for those of you on radio it is the welcome of Dr. ISE walking the aisle of the perfect Wegmans
produce section. John the problem here is if you want to win in Pennsylvania you're not buying organic asparagus in there and
the rest of it. I mean Wegmans asparagus they sell like three things a week a dollar one point five pounds of 524 each.
want to win in Pennsylvania and western New York there's one way Dr. ISE Zweig goes sausage premium pop open cooked whites. You
gotta buy John RTS ISE y goes hotdogs at six ninety nine each. Now that's a breakfast that leads to victory in Pennsylvania.
Candy when they send a tank full 349 Tom Keene Annmarie Horden case. That's right. That's it's not. It's good because then you
don't have to drive to Costco and wait in line. You know that's that you know I could see you doing one of these shopping trips
till then blaming the precedent at the end. But you know if you want to win in pants get getting the night. I still run shotting
the Republicans. Pennsylvania you're buying asparagus and dipping in SS and wondering whether you should add tequila to it
anyway. You know you buy a case a shape for beer.
That's where you start. And you follow up was Zweig rules and something from
Philadelphia and Pittsburgh that gets done a few days later. It a story from I'm pleased with the mayor. It's Team Covid is
great. It's features down nine tenths of one percent on the S&P futures down on the Nasdaq by one full percentage point.
Equities a bit weaker.
Hey it was a lot higher. That's another story. John NASDAQ not to see it done. A stronger euro dollar
negative about a quarter of 1 percent just above parity. This is Glenn Beck.
Keeping you up to date with these from around the world to the best word answers you could get to. A judge says that part of
the FBI affidavit used to get a search warrant for Donald Trump's estate should be unsealed. The judge has given the
Justice Department a week to propose what should be blacked out. News organizations and others have asked for it to be released.
China has reported the worst week of Covid infection since mid-May. They'd been fueled by outbreaks in vacation hot spots
that risk spreading across the country. There were more than 18000 new infections in the week that ended Thursday. And the
influential sister of North Korean leader Kim Jong un has rejected a disarmament for aid deal offered by South Korea's
president Kim Yo. Jong called it a sheepish plan.
And she said that North Korea has no intention of getting rid of its nuclear
arsenal even if your company isn't planning layoffs. The one next door is. That is according to a study by consulting firm
P.W. See it polled more than 700 U.S. executives and board members and found that half said they were reducing headcount or
plan to. 52 percent have implemented hiring freezes. Qualcomm is planning a return to the market the server
processes. Bloomberg's land. The company seeking customers for products stemming from last year's purchase of chip startup
Nubia Amazon's cloud business has agreed to take a look at successful product launch could help Qualcomm decrease its
reliance on smartphones. And she has a blood bath and beyond. Still plunging investors reacted after that news that
billionaire Ryan Cohen has sold his stake in the struggling retailer. Cohen pocketed 68 million dollars a 56 percent gain in
investment. He had held for seven months. But retail investors are feeling the pain. Their net purchases at Bed Bath and Beyond
surged the last three weeks.
Global news 24 hours a day on air and on Bloomberg Quicktake powered by more than twenty seven
hundred journalists and analysts in more than 100 and 20 countries. And which could get to. This is goodbye. We still have China in lockdown we have large parts of Asia also
in partial lockdown when it comes to international travel. And I think that's going to open up in the next six months. We are
down 25 percent on jet fuel man globally from pre Covid levels. We could see a pickup of of half a million barrels a day maybe
more. Just on that front alone Francisco Blanchett Bank of America looking for maybe a return
of high crude prices from New York City this morning.
Good morning. With some Kate and Candy line some Jonathan Ferro Lisa
Banquet is on Mondays. We closed out this trading week looking at some weakness. This morning we're down 1 per cent on the S&P.
We roll over from the NASDAQ negative one point a one five per cent call it negative one point 1 6. It affects markets I'm told
a strength some euro weakness euro dollar clinging on to parity 1 0 0 6 1 this morning negative a quarter of 1 per cent a year.
It's a lot higher. So let's call it five basis points higher some to 92 98 on a U.S.
10 year sentence. You see we're watching
foreign exchange particularly. We've got Jane Foley coming up as well to give perspective other good guests right now on the
airlines. And it is something we've all got our stories about trying to get back to travel trying to get back to normal. It's
not. Savi Smith joins us airlines managing director at Raymond James Savi. I want to get this out of the way right now on a buy
hold cell basis which is the American Airline to believe in over the next three to five years which is a stock that's getting it
right. He adds that Tom Mackenzie Delta is probably a good stock to own
There's a lot of uncertainty. It is a cyclical sector but I think you got quality there a good balance sheet and new
customer service that's returning. That's probably right off to my colleague Savi Paul Sweeney got me into looking at the app
where I can watch the airlines take off last night at Newark UW are I basically saw controlled chaos.
There were 17 planes in
perfect weather trying to get up in the air. How did we get here. Where the actual physical airports are a mess.
The issue with the Northeast though is and this has always been an issue is it's. And you look out. It's perfect weather.
But weather in Pennsylvania you know the weather in that whole Florida matters to the airport since it's long been a
And on top of that you know you're right. You're layering on more recently air traffic control staffing. That's
that's lower than in the past year. You have kind of just across the supply chain at the airlines and the airports just staffing
levels that aren't you know back to the productivity that we saw create crisis. Hopefully as we kind of go through the following
months hiring picks up people gain more experience.
Some of these issues should resolve. But unfortunately the Northeast
airspace is a longer term issue that needs to be resolved. And maybe using next generation air traffic control systems. Well
and of course that's not just a U.S. story. That's a global story. When you look at what's happening with airports and
airlines in Europe the easyJet pilots strike in Spain beginning today lasting three days. We know what's been going on at
Heathrow with everyone from the people on the tarmac on strike as we talk about how fuel pressures have come down a bit.
What about the wage pressures.
Are those now going to be picking up as the people employed by the airlines depend demand more
because of inflation. And good point Kailey Leinz and that's that's probably going to be a difference on this side of the
Atlantic versus the other side. Just the way the labor contracts work but you make a really good clients in the US. Last year you
had a lot of the gate agents ramp agents where they were struggling to staff. And so you saw a lot of wage increases
there about 25 percent increases for entry level positions. But that's a great small portion of overall airline labor costs.
What we haven't really seen is flight attendants pilots mechanics those contracts that became amendable right around
before Covid or right or wrong Covid which usually would have been amended by now. That hasn't gotten done yet. We think it
will get done in the next 12 to 24 months and you're probably going to see pretty big wage increases there. And so it is still
a big cost increase yet to come for four airlines here.
OK Savi so that's what the airlines are paying their people. Let's talk
about what. Me and everybody else is going to have to pay to get on the plane itself. Have we seen peak fares and pricing power.
Is it all downhill from here. I think we've seen peak fares for the reason that you know
earlier in the summer you had this kind of a perfect storm of you know for various reasons capacity that was being constrained
and capacity that was probably about 10 percentage points below demand.
And as we go through I think capacity is finally going to catch up to demand.
It also happened at a time where fuel was doubled
in an innovative short period of new media in a short period of time. And you have seen fuel pull back a little bit. Now that
will be somewhat offset by labor costs that are coming. But I do think you're not going to see that level of pricing that you saw
earlier this summer but because of that labor contract will be somewhat elevated. So I mean I want to go small here. I want to
go from Grand Forks North Dakota where you schooled 82 miles south to Fargo. If I want to fly from Fargo to New York it's
almost cheaper to go to Minnesota to Minneapolis to fly out. Is American aviation given up on smaller cities.
But not completely and I think Fargo is probably going to continue to have service. But you're right. There are these are
pockets of areas that the airlines are struggling right now because the pilots supply two to service.
And I think that will get resolved over time. But it is for small cities. You're going to see maybe less frequency or in in
very small cities instances maybe.
No no service. And that's not summer is getting dropped. And the result is a pilot supply
issue or a pilot cost issue. These are not 50 seat aircraft that it really gets hard to spread that fixed cost out as pilot wages
move up. Sally awesome to get your thoughts on this industry savvy set of Raymond James an industry we've all got an opinion
on right now. T.K. we find together next week. I don't know if we are not. I know my people have briefed me on
that. Okay. I don't know. Just trying to work out travel NIKKEI. I got some thing and they go do you want to flown to Omaha and
take the wagon train west wagon train leave money. How long does the wagon train take. Yeah. Well it depends. If you get to
Kearney Nebraska you just begin to see the Rocky Mountains in the distance. So it's a little bit of it. So you're going to
take the wagon train from Sunday.
I'll see you on a seal of Penn Station and maybe they will get a huge response. I mean the
million dollar barge owner just beckons for you and me. Okay. We'll work it out with do a LifeLock of it some video club that
we kill just a week after the signal that we're down about 1 per cent on the S&P on the NASDAQ Tom Keene. Put it back. Put him
back by one full percentage point video type by let's call it basis points to a five basis point to 293 just since we started
this picture John. We've got strong code. I don't want to wait on VIX. Why we're really getting right there. And you know I
we're making jokes and all that. It's Friday in the summer. We're ready for the autumnal foliage to click. And you know what
folks. There's a lot going on in the market. This is super defensive this morning. We've got yields up on a stronger
equities lower crude low a dollar strong Kelly crude lower by let's call it one point nine percent right now.
And how much of
that is the China demand story. John I was looking at Asia overnight. It was down just like everything else. But it really
feels to me that that is what is dragging down that entire region. Expectations of Chinese growth getting much much lower
2.8 percent is what Nomura said they're looking for this week. And despite the pledges of stimulus we've seen over the past
couple of days the market just doesn't seem to buy it. If you've got an airline run that you'd like to share just some
complaints. No. All right. Yeah. I will not check a bag though.
You won't. I won't do that either. I went to see my mum.
She wanted to send me back with stuff. I said absolutely not. Carry carry on. Only I would not be checking it back. T.K.
checking it back next week. Yeah I'd take four or five. Usually you're taken back next week. I look like a hash rate and we go. Monkeys I'll put you down a lot of the hard work that I've been
doing in the previous months the market things basically in a years time inflation is going can be back up to 1 1/2 percent.
We still think that the Fed has more to go. And then also will ease policy the less next year. I do have confidence the Fed
will eventually do it's necessary and that will ultimately get back to something close to 2 percent.
The real divergence comes
in 2023 where the market is pricing rate cuts and the Fed is expecting to continue to hike.
This is Bloomberg Surveillance with Tom Keene Jonathan Ferro and Lisa Abramowicz a ready defensive Friday morning for New York
City this morning. Good morning. Good morning from audience worldwide. This is Bloomberg Surveillance with Tom Keene.
I'm Jonathan Ferro together with a pretty and catty lines. Lisa back on Monday futures down about 1 percent. Can the S&P on the
Nasdaq down by one point one. Here's a message. Stay with us through the hour. Gene Foley along the way. We'll talk about her
foreign exchange off the desk in London. And John I just got to say foreign exchange speaks volumes this morning about the
tensions out there. John in Rochester looking for another move lower on euro dollar. Some will pick up on that theme. Barclays
pushing back this morning saying we set up for a reality check from Chairman Pound next week. And Michael Hartnett of Bank of
America sold out a couple of hours ago just calling this a textbook bear market rally that June.
So let's be clear there.
Some of these strategists folks can stop the market cold and and did that a couple days ago John. We ran an op Phil Hartnett
published and boom we went down stochastic as I'd put it like a rock if you will. And you know that's the sweater over the
weekend. It's not a normal lazy Friday summer weekend. Some a weekend time just around the corner. I have to say Mark kind of
pushing back against all of this.
Yes. Gas price targets of a year end. They're not for intricate in the hopes that from the
guy over at J.P. Morgan some just. Yes. I wonder if everybody's going to recalibrate earlier or are we going to see the third
quarter right up September 26. Is that going to happen August 26. Kenneth ISE super defensive Gannett's chairman Powell next
Friday. Yeah. Basically the only thing it looks like people want to buy this morning is that dollar equities lower bond selling
off as well. It just seems to me that risk is getting taken off the table. We
also have to keep in mind there's a massive options expiration today. I think two trillion dollars worth. So that may add some
volatility that really largely has been absent for a lot of parts of this market John. And we've wrapped up earnings season
in Haidi Lun. It was not as bad as people expected it to be.
As is often the case with earnings season. Yeah it's a question of if we were too pessimistic coming into the second quarter are
they still too optimistic about the picture going forward.
Because as you say John most companies beat expectations but the
bar was a little bit lower. And so I wonder going forward are we starting to see maybe more revisions downward revisions to
assets joined ranks of Mike Wilson at Morgan Stanley have been warning about for some time. And I wonder if a here read
Carlotta mentioned the this the brown euro we know and love. I just wonder whether that was a day.
Mike Wilson as know from
market yesterday yesterday. Was it for his peers or his clients. Talk about that later. Futures down 1 percent on the S&P 500 on
the NASDAQ was down about one full percentage point was softer this morning. Yields are higher by six basis points on a 10 year
to 94 euro dollar negative 2 1 0 0 5 9 with down about a third of 1 percent. You can't deny some euro weakness some dollar
strength. Yep. Not just euro weakness. Basically everything is weaker against the greenback today. Not so much about the
central bank rate differential story. That really is a bid for Haven given all the risks out there around the growth story and
geopolitical risk as well. Now there's a number of Europe risks Europe is facing. That is why you're seeing the euro weakness
playing out. And in the U.K. there also is risk and that is in the form of labor.
It is the summer of strikes that continues
today with a strike on the London Underground. All of our colleagues over at London headquarters are gonna have difficulty
getting home today. Plus easyJet pilots in Spain are also on strike for the next three days. It is the cost of living crisis
pushing labour to push for higher wages. Of course wages are something the Fed is keeping an eye on as well.
We'll hear from
one Fed speaker Tom Bachman Barton of the Richmond Fed at 9:00 a.m. Eastern Time. Where does he come down in the chorus of
voices we have heard this week some more on the camp of Jim Bullard who yesterday says let's go 75 again in September or
more like ISE or George who would like to take it easy and not overdo it. So we'll wait to hear from him. Finally in the
commodity complex as it relates to energy prices 1 p.m. Eastern we'll get the U.S. Baker Hughes rig count. Basically just a read
on shale and supply how much they are drilling. We've been focusing so much on demand in the oil market in recent weeks on
but about supply. Are we still underestimating the constraints that are out there in the oil market. Just to mention I've got a
great video somewhere of Manus Cranny and I maybe 10 years ago trying to get back from the city of London to west London some
with a cheap shut down.
And we tried to do in London buses and had absolutely no idea what we were doing. I think it took us
three hours in the tram but this is indicative of what we're going to see with the inflation that's out there. What's that.
Some more strikes. ISE. Yeah I think a labour. Primal scream from labor. Yes. Gonna see a lot of it. Futures right now down 1
per cent on the S&P and the Nasdaq down 1 full percentage point. Joining us is Michael Schild the CEO of Market Filled Asset
Management Michael. About 30 minutes ago Steve Schaeffer owner Federated came on this show and just said soundtrack savvy tech
stocks do agree with that. I think the S&P has had
a very powerful bounce and I think you're back at a level that it's.
I think it's easier to see the next 500 points being down
rather than rather than up in the S&P. So I'm not sure I would particularly pick on technology but I think this is a market
that you can look at. And if it were stocks for you know you hung onto in June and you don't feel great about it I think this
is a reasonable chance to say goodbye to them. I find it fascinating the back and forth.
You've always been so thoughtful
about what to do with a portfolio. Do you have a conviction now or is it a summer of show uncertainty.
You know I think that we're in the middle of a significant tightening by the Federal Reserve and that will involve at some
point a real market panic. I felt we were close to it in June. I think the market held its nerve. And you've had you know I think
a typical a typical reaction to that. You know I'm uncertain how long this this bounce goes on for but I still think we have a
period of significant volatility ahead of us before year end.
Well of course Michael the Fed would like to see financial
conditions tighten. That is what they are aiming for. That was the goal of the rate hikes they are implementing. And we know
that for the broader economy that will operate with a lag. But in theory it should already be affecting the market. And yet
what we've seen is financial conditions getting looser even as the Fed waits for that lagged effect for the economy. Are they
just going to have to be more aggressive now to signal to the market hey we're serious and that risks ending up too tight.
It's a great question.
You know I'm not sure the Fed directly targets financial conditions. I believe the Fed targets
inflation and believes that by tightening financial conditions it kind of gets there. Now I think one thing which has gone well
for the Fed over the summer is that finally some of us sort of transitory effects which they were looking for last year have
been delivered. So they have a little bit of a believe in terms of inflation in terms of financial conditions. I mean very
reflect what I just said about the equity market. We're back to almost exactly zero. The Bloomberg Financial Conditions Index
that reflects an S&P which has had a 50 percent recovery of its you know of its bear market and credit markets where spreads are
you know I would say back to the high end of normal.
But you know I'm not sure the Fed directly targets financial
conditions. I mean if I'm right and you have a period of volatility ahead of you you know that's something that's going
to fix itself. What I would say is that the Fed is not scared of financial markets at this point. And so what that does is open
the way to more aggressive rate hikes if they feel like doing that. Whereas back in June you know I think the Fed is looking
at financial markets and thinking whether or not it can get away of a 75 basis point hike or not. What are you expecting from
Chairman Pound next week Michael. What would you look for. I think he's going to try and keep his options open. I think he's
going to repeat the mantra that the Fed is very serious about controlling inflation and will you know it will do what it
It's a sort of reverse Mario draft. But it's the same as for same quote being used.
But I think he's going to try not to commit. You know this is not going to be Ben Bernanke in 2010 where he telegraphed QE 2 3
months ahead of time. Powell you know understands I think. But it's it's it's a tricky situation here. And he'll do his best to
not say very much. Michael the truth is we don't care what you think about the markets. We want
surveillance rule. Yes. Yes. Farrell wanted to Manchester United. Farrell There's points referral. He's yes. He's taking
over. Yes. He had a total tantrum and said get show off.
You got to get up on me and you got Michael. Let's go. Let's go. What is
going wrong with your football club. I think it's just a horribly managed organization. It's not just the football
itself. I mean it's it's just just a shocking series of very mediocre decisions made at the very most senior level of the
club. You know bye bye ownership. That in my opinion should never have
been allowed time. I mean could they not sell a 6 billion dollar asset with a capital gain. I mean don't they have almost a moral
duty to unload it here after Chelsea. I think the place for Chelsea got probably alerted some people in the household
but I think they've always taken the view that sports you know sports is one of it's almost like technology.
But is always it's
always valued more. Look I don't know. I'd be delighted to see a change in ownership although you know I'll be honest though are
worse. You know I'd rather be owned by a family than a country that that's just that's just my own personal feelings. Michael
shout if market filled asset management when they do take maybe a giant club for real. So what do we think about the fact is
we're in a man's city tie today even though we support Mr.. It's it's so confusing. I think he's going away. I'm ready next
time we just take a moment to say we also appreciate Michael Cheryl's opinion on the market. You think that was grandma would
ever say. Oh come on. You got a tough citing Katie.
Come on. I'm plenty tough Tom. Come on. You know make a show. Thank much sir.
Thank you Ramos. Plenty tough as well. Yeah by most by next week. And coming to Jackson Hole Two. You're coming to Jackson
Hole with us Katie. We're gonna make that happen. I wish they would. My bears. Your show would start at 3:00 a.m. Eastern
Time. Then that's going to be rather 3:00 AM. But I look forward to watching your coverage. Thank you. You look forward to us in
the dark in the freezing cold at 4:00 AM local time kid through. I look ahead to Chairman Power. That'll be fun T.K.. We'll take
your hand luggage only next week. I thought we sort that out. No we did. Seriously. Hand luggage. Your hand luggage. It's some of
the stories I've heard this year. Brutal. I don't know anyone who wants to check it back.
Take care. That is a high risk
strategy. It's a business traveler. John you're more on this than I am.
But you gotta say why. I mean what what is different now versus November of 2000 19 in terms of baggage. They don't have the
stuff the baggage handlers tell me or I pay more than you got to get in security clearance as well. At an airport that takes a
while. It takes a while to ramp gives man new tickets. And that scares them off at this point some or encourages them. Coming up
we'll catch up with Patrick CAC soccer DAX. Got to squeeze this in. Special birthday tonight.
Some happy birthday to Mohammed an
area. Very very happy birthday. Is he going to buy Queen's Park Rangers. I'll have a chance to see this. Take a minority stake
in Manchester United. Futures down 1 percent on the S&P. From New York. This is Glenn.
Keeping you up to date with news from around the world with the first. I'm Richard Gupta. Fed officials are offering mixed
signals about the next interest rate increase. Their two day meeting is set for September 20th. One of the most hawkish
policymakers sent Lewis Fed President James Balog backs a big move.
He told The Wall Street Journal there should be another 75 basis points hike. Meanwhile Kansas City's Esther George was more
cautious. She said the Fed had already done a lot of tightening. European intelligence officials say Russia is probably using a
nuclear power plant in southern Ukraine to shield troops and equipment. That's a tactic that undermines the security of the
plant. The nuclear facility is Europe's largest. The U.S. U.K. and EU have demanded access to the plant for international
And the biggest producer of the nickel used in electric car batteries wants to be seen as more than just a
repository of resources. Indonesia's President Joko Widodo spoke to Bloomberg's editor in
chief. John Micklethwait going to get some more idea life would be less strict. Yeah.
What we want is the electric cars not the battery. PROTESTER We want to build electric cars in Indonesia from Ford
electric cars. Hyundai Electric cars from Japan Toyota. Suzuki. Gone gone. And get these. And we want a huge eco system of
electric cars. Indonesia's held talks on potential partnerships with Tesla over several years. There have been no agreements.
Global news 24 hours a day on air and on Bloomberg Quicktake powered by more than twenty seven hundred journalists and
analysts and more than 120 countries and which to get to. This is Glenn Beck. The Fed doesn't know where it is that the world is very
ambiguous at this point. And minutes of a meeting or a very poor way to convey a
Larry Summers there on the same page as Tom Keene the former Treasury secretary. Look out for more from that
alongside David Westin on Wall Street week later this evening live from New York City alongside some Cain and Kenny Knights
this morning up Jonathan Ferro Lisa Banquet is some Monday equity features negative 1 full percentage point on the S&P on
the Nasdaq down about one point one percent yield higher by six basis points.
Now on a 10 year to to 90 445. So yields climbing
equities dropping crude down by 2 percent to 88 59. And just to round out a defensive morning some dollar strength for you. Euro
dollar threatening to break through parity again. Some euro dollar 1 0 0 5 7 and negative a third of 1 percent. Once you do
X or Y the more broader trade index I should say more narrow trade index 1 0 8. We haven't touched Chip or get in there. In
moments Bloomberg Dollar Index a much broader more complex series showing strength of half a percent asked a dollar today
against sterling really leading the way here 118. Forty three. We will be in Jackson all next week. It's not a lot of fun and
You go out there it's 38 degrees. It's cold in the morning. We've got a great great team ready and we're really
lining up exceptional. Guess one of those scheduled not to speak with us is like the Silence of the Lambs. It's the silence of
the Treasury Secretary. Jack Fitzpatrick joins us now to get ready for Jackson Hole. Jack where in God's name is Janet
Yellen. That's a fair question. I think the Biden administration pretty
broadly has tried to let the Federal Reserve speak
you know if it's if it's on inflation concerns saying look the Fed takes the lead on this.
Yellen you know for her name
recognition and her prior roles have not been super vocal. I. That may be a product of the White House struggling to figure
out how to talk about the economy lately. I mean it is a bit surprising that she hasn't necessarily been a more high profile
cabinet secretary. I'm not sure I have an answer for you. I that is but it's it's tough. It's been tough for them to figure out
how to talk about the economy and when it comes to inflation.
It's a lot of the time the the answer has been. Well that's the
Fed's job. I get that. But should she be taking a victory lap for the legislation just signed by the president.
It might be difficult for her to take the victory lap. You know for one. Yes the administration is excited about it. They ended
up getting there in part by stepping back and letting the Senate just figure out what they could what they could do there. Maybe
there will be more of a victory lap. Remember that they had the bill signing but with Congress out and many lawmakers not there
they're going to have further events with cabinet secretaries where they talk about how they're implementing this you know on
the Treasury's stuff. It's a bit of a dicey politically issue. I don't think the Biden administration wants to play up the IRS
components of that very much.
That's something Republicans are campaigning on. So I don't know that that's necessarily
something that lends itself to Janet Yellen taking center stage. And I'm not sure anything has lent itself in a politically
advantageous way to her taking center stage. Well of course the domestic politics is only one thing that President Biden has to
worry about. There's also geopolitics. And we had the president of Indonesia Joko Widodo speaking with Bloomberg's editor in
chief John Micklethwait overnight saying that Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping are going to show up to the G 20 in Bali in November
if Vladimir Putin goes.
Realistically do we think that changes President Biden's plans to attend.
It's a fair question. I don't know if they're going to back out but it's difficult to imagine this scenario entirely of
President Biden. She Putin and keep in mind Vladimir Zelinsky was also invited and was supposed to be involved as well.
It seems unlikely that the four of them would all be there at the same time regardless of exactly how the White House decides
to respond to this. It very clearly is a failure from their perspective. They were trying to push for Putin not to be
They pushed for Russia to be kicked out of the G 20. So clearly there they have to figure out how they respond to
something that is absolutely a disappointment to the White House. Well and of course Xi Jinping and President Biden have
issues of their own right now specifically as it relates to Taiwan. Jack do we have a firmer sense of whether or not U.S.
policy really has shifted in the last several weeks as we see more activity in the Taiwan Strait.
The U.S. policy may shift but right now the White House seems to be playing a bit of a game of wait and see. Not only was there
the Chinese reaction to Speaker Pelosi's trip but then there was another congressional delegation that visited Taiwan and their
military patrols happened again around Taiwan. The White House has is tried to not overreact to that but it makes it more
difficult for them to make a decision on lifting tariffs or any number of other policy items that would be difficult to figure
Regarding China they may lead them to find common ground to just find somewhere on climate for example where they can work
together with China. But it's a bit difficult for the White House to figure out exactly how their policies on China would
change now because so many there's so many moving parts. The last two weeks or so. Jack thank you. Dan in D.C. Jack
Fitzpatrick that blimp that governments can completely brought up the Secretary Annan's point just an unbelievably talented
economist who at times has been invisible in this administration. And right now is one of those times when this
happens. I think it's my my basic take John is it's always in every case the comfort of the president. And all we can suggest
as President Biden is not comfortable. I don't. I'm baffled by there have been reports Tom that she's frozen out of meetings
and hasn't taken a central role. You know I'm clearly biased. Her loved it. What I love about Janet Yellen John is when she
Her accent switches to central Brooklyn. It's it's hilarious. It shows her accent just changes to her childhood to
say I haven't had to get angry too many times. I would I would make clear that the word that she owns is the word slack. She is
the one that had a primal scream. There's a slack in the American labor economy. How much slack is there now. Here come
the cuts. Kenny nice wife.
Yeah. Five percent reduction of the global workforce affects about 870 employees. Did you see the
survey out of P.W. C. CEO John. They interviewed 700 executives. Half of them said they planning to reduce headcount if they
haven't already talked about a slowdown in the labor credo survey. Yes. And it put out brutal features right now down nine
tenths of one percent is watching. Dr. ISE update you on that survey a little bit more in a moment. Some on
the Nasdaq was down one full percentage point yields higher. Stocks are lower from New York City head on radio seen on TV.
This is Bloomberg Surveillance. From New York City this morning good morning to you. Here's your
price action and negative 1 percent on the S&P. We fight on the Nasdaq. We're down 1 point 0 4 percent. Michael Harnett over at
Bank of America coming out with all the stats this morning. Just four names four names Microsoft Apple Amazon Heisler those four
making up 30 percent of the move we've had off the lows or seventeen point four percent of it some over the last few months
from June 6th to the peak.
So long ago John let's help with his seven point four percent apples six point zero percent.
Microsoft Amazon three point five percent. Tesla two point one percent.
Thirteen five 18. Make it 90 percent of the index John in those four. So we've seen some big moves in those four stocks as well.
The other thing that Michael Honda pointed out as well Tom Thomas just decided to move and he looked back at the last forty
three rallies of more than 10 percent. Right. Since 1929. And he identified the fact that they average about seventeen point two
percent. So that's your average bear market rally of more than 10 percent this seventeen point four percent at one time. He's
basically saying is a textbook bear market rally. I can tell you with him right now take what we're feeling right now. And
rejoicing in LA being led by Deere by foreign exchange D x rays a strong dollar moments ago printing threw one away. That's a
big deal. I'm going to get to the effects mark in just a moment.
Let's start with the bond market. First though a look at two
towns and cities. Talks about what we closed out last week at 324 on a two year just north of that. Now at 326 call it 327 off
the highs of the week as well. We got to his highs 337 that faded after the Fed minutes. We're building some way back to the
front end of the curve again up 7 basis points on Tues up six or seven basis points on ten. So yield to higher stocks are lower.
And the dollar is stronger. You can see that against cable. You can see that against euro dollar. Let's take a look at the euro.
Jordan Rochester did more reporting out this morning that we are not priced well for a recession.
So he's looking for a move down
to ninety seven on euro dollar right now at some 1 0 0 5 for just about holding on to parity. And this is the you know
Keynes. When the facts change I change. You wonder how these central bankers are going to adapt not just to the dollar and
the multiple currency dynamics. I mean they're they're tangible and they will be in the back of the mind. Jackson what's on the
pay in the back of the mind. The ECB meeting as well. Because that weakness through the SFX channel.
Yes it's going to
exacerbate the problems they have with imported inflation. They need to get a grip of that like grip of madness to go 50 basis
points again. But some that's a 50 basis point hike in a real potential economic weakness. I'm going to sell it again.
I think we need Matt Miller guard at the Jackson Hole. Made a you e-mail. Yes. Did she respond. No but people did. What did
they say. Is she did. No. Okay. Well place we clear that up some. That's a cross asset price action case.
And maybe this
morning we can say that would caddy line say Kelly. Hey John. Well I have to begin with Bed Bath and Beyond because it is an
absolute plunge this morning in premarket trading. And really one man is to blame. That would be Ryan Cohen the founder of
Telecom who is now no longer a shareholder in Bed Bath and Beyond because he sold his entire stake.
And really the fact
that he was a shareholder is in part what drove the rally in the shares that we had seen. Remember the stock was up 400 percent
from late July through Wednesday then down 20 percent on the news. He might sell that. He did it. And the stock is down 43
percent as a result. And you're seeing really air coming out of the entire stock trade. GameStop down about 10 percent. AMC is
down 6 percent as well. That's one highly speculative area of the markets. Of course
another one is crypto. And given the risk of sentiment we are seeing today Bitcoin is sinking as well down about 8 percent.
And that's weighing directly on crypto related equities like Coinbase.
The big crypto exchange down about 9 percent. There
are a few earnings stories still out there even though basically today will be the wrap up of earnings season after Deere
reported this morning lowering its profit outlook for the year due to inflation and supply chain issues. That stock down five
point four percent as a result. And even Applied Materials cannot get a gain here even though its revenue guidance was
better than expected. It of course is a manufacturer of the equipment that makes semiconductors. And even though that
outlook is softening they're still feeling bullish on the outlook for their revenue picture.
But that's not enough to do it for the stock on such a down day Tom. It's essentially flat before the bell. Interesting to see
you. After watches with the VIX now down a full stick. One point to four points twenty point eight zeros gives me a higher VIX
showing the angst that's out there.
Evan Brown with us now as we calibrate into September how to Malta Assets Strategy UBS Asset
Management. I need to know if it's a time to sit tight Evan or is it time to be supple and at the margins move an asset mix
around. Yeah hi Tom. You know I think it's a time to be to be supple.
There is so much macro uncertainty right now. You've got stagflation in Europe and the U.K.
You've got disinflation in
the U.S. but we don't know where it's going to land. Lot of moving parts with central banks and so is not really the time to
be taking big absolute directional bets more of a relative value environment. What does that leave the bond market and not just
equities. So I think with with bonds it's you know you can can drift
higher but it's it's more about the flatness. Right. We have this this situation where growth is slowing but the Fed is
tightening. Two different moving parts that should put upward pressure on front end yields. But but looking further out you've
got kind of an anchor on long term yields because of what's happening in Europe but particularly in China right. Where we're
really not seeing the stimulus that we expected to really take hold. And these these small interest rate cuts are not going to
be enough to really boost domestic demand. So that's going to put a lid on how much U.S. yields and global yields further out.
The curve can grow. Even with that in mind where does that leave the dollar.
We're dollar upside.
I mean you've got this the Fed that's going to have to continue to to raise rates or at the very least keep
sending the message and send the message even more that these cuts that are priced in in 2023 need to come out. And the easing
of financial conditions that we've seen you know means the Fed is going to have to keep pushing back more. And then in the
meantime you got a slowing China that's weighing on global growth. So U.S. growth doing OK U.S. tightening ex U.S. growth
struggling. And in Europe stagflation where it's very difficult to get real interest rates higher. And so real interest rate
differentials still moving forward in favor of the U.S. and the dollar goes goes higher. Well to that exact point of in the
headline crossed the terminal just a few minutes ago that the yuan is at the weakest level since 2020. On that widening rate
differential as we talk about that growth struggles in China the idea of slower growth coming from the world's second largest
economy stagflation in Europe which is frankly just in crisis.
How much of that has a bearing on the Federal Reserve. John made
the point yesterday that Chairman Paul might not even want to bring up the rest of the world because that runs the risk of
being perceived as perhaps more dovish given how brutal the picture is elsewhere.
No I think that's a really good point. I mean the the weakness in the rest of the world but particularly the strength of the
dollar that's come from that is putting downward pressure on core goods prices. We especially saw that the last inflation
print that is helpful for the Fed in achieving its price stability goals. But but the focus is going to be shifting a lot
more away from the core goods inflation coming off the pandemic related temporary effects coming up but then still stubborn
services inflation. So you know Poulton can acknowledge that improvement in court goods coming from what's happening in the
rest of the world. But he can't lose sight of or deemphasize what's still really tight. Labor markets still rising. Wage
growth still rising. Shelter inflation services inflation.
So it's you know navigating that is a tricky message. Yeah. And as
we talk about kind of the dollar and the strength that we're seeing I wonder if there is another way to hedge because I'm
looking at the markets this morning. And you don't want to buy bonds. You don't want to buy stocks. You don't want to buy
commodities. The only thing anyone looks like they want to buy is the dollar. Is there another way to play defense in this kind
of market Ivan. Yeah I mean I think the main way to play defense is through the dollar but also you know in less cyclical
equities. So you can talk about health care you can talk about factor wise minimal volatility which is which is kind of a risk
off sector but not as expensive as staples and utilities are. So I think those are interesting ways to have a little bit of
defensiveness within equities outside of the facts.
I mean just awesome to get your views this morning. Thanks for being with us
sir. Helen Brown of UBS Asset Management S.A.. Difficult morning proven right now. We've got futures down about 1 percent on the
S&P on the Nasdaq were down about one point one six percent. We had a couple of mornings early this week where we had negative
moves in the morning and then they faded into the close. We'll see if they stick. But it was a higher yield to him as stocks
along with number up six basis points on a 10 year. Is the gloom now
any different than the rationalization of gloom. A June 10th June 12th.
I think Tom the gloom has changed in the sense that
the date has been okay. That is how it up. I think the gloom is just being pushed out.
The same debate exists around the Federal Reserve. One how far do they have to go. And 2 how long did I stay. Long is
everything. How long do they stay there. And that's the big debate around 2023. We keep playing that clip clip from CAC
Barrow of JP Morgan. I think Cassie's right on the money. That's the big split right now. The Fed is saying we go and then we
hold and the market is saying you'll go only so far and then you'll start cutting and they're pushing back against that
fervor. Our viewers and listeners who have invested in the stock market
for retirement and for you know serious issues John Wise's chit. Any different than June 10th of this early summer.
And I don't
think it is. I'm not sure it's changed Tom except the price of a story. The price of the story has changed. We've had a 17
percent lead with the lows. Well I would also argue that the thing has that has changed this earning season happened and it
really wasn't as awful as anyone was expected. I wonder if this rally is actually allocated on better fundamentals versus just
hoping I'm about the Federal Reserve because both were happening at the same time and then payrolls blew up the story and that
payrolls was still in a massive way year over year peak inflation was to be expected. I think the red the real one this
some real spice to the division right now for the outlook is just payrolls holding up the way they have done.
When you start to see claims I'm Tom and this whole theory start to kick in which was now we see it the weakness in the labor
And then you know we're just like that. And we're gonna get claims sitting on the lawn at Jackson Hole Lodge next week.
You know what. If they go better than it's a lower statistic. I mean again I just I just I got so I got so much rush hour day
back to the difference. Yeah. The only difference Dow Jones is back then the Yankees were winning. And now the Yankees are not
winning. That's the distinction. They still lead in that division. So I
don't I don't really follow the Yankees. Well I can tell you that you find the Rangers and now the Red Sox were losing back
then and they're losing now. Thank you. Futures down 1 percent on the S&P with some came county line some Jonathan Ferro. Lisa
back home Monday counting it down to Jackson Hole Wyoming set carpenter of Morgan Stanley.
Joining us very shortly. This is
Bloomberg. Keeping you up to date on news from around the world with the
first right answers could get to a judge says that part of the FBI affidavit used to get a search warrant for Donald Trump's
estate should be unsealed. The judge has given the Justice Department a week to propose what should be blacked out. News
organizations and others have asked for it to be released. China has reported the worst week of Covid infections since mid-May.
They've been fueled by outbreaks and vacation hot spots that risk spreading across the country.
There were more than 18000
new infections in the week that ended those day. Even if your company isn't planning layoffs the one next door is. That's
according to a study by consulting firm P.W.. It polled more than 700 U.S. executives and board members. About half said they
are reducing headcount or plan to 52 percent of implemented hiring freezes. The largest maker of farm machinery Deere has
cut its outlook for the full year. The company warned of supply chain issues and higher production costs. DEA says it has been
able to offset some of its problems with price increases. California based fund manager PIMCO is using its deep pocket to
buy assets that have been hurt by the cost of living crisis.
The firm has spent more than two billion dollars to buy leveraged
debt backing consumer companies that banks struggle to offload. Bloomberg's lend it's part of PIMCO is broader strategy to
capitalize on depressed prices. Global news 24 hours a day on air and on Bloomberg Quicktake powered by more than twenty seven
hundred journalists and analysts in over 120 countries and which could get to. This is Bloomberg. The market has been getting some relief from the fact that
inflation has been a little bit better. Sentiment was very bearish. You've had some better than expected economic data but
I don't think these issues have been resolved. We still think that the Fed has more to go. And then also we'll use policy less
next year as they want to stay serious about inflation. It was awesome to catch up with Andrew Sheets a market Stanley just
yesterday. We need to catch up with this market right now at Tom Keene and CAC.
Some Jonathan Ferro breaking down on the equity
market down nine tenths of one percent on the S&P on the NASDAQ 100 down one full percentage point. The price action though to
be fair is elsewhere yields higher by 6 basis points on a 10 year Staci 293. Ninety elsewhere gilt yields higher bond yields
higher beekeepers. Italian bond yields much higher by 18 or 19 basis points over in Italy to let's call it 350 now and off the
back of some of this the dollar just eating Gump G10 ripping through it cable tellme sterling down by nine tenths of one per
cent. That's a weaker pound cable dance a one 18 20 this morning. Euro dollar just about holding on to parity.
Hallmark Foxes surveillance is to use our language carefully. I'm not going to see Sterling plunged sterling in freefall. But
John it does have elements of that as we approach the ones the 117 level John and also north the North American complex with
loonie after 130 and peso which has been strong peaceful recently twenty point two five gets made. You have got the
dollar stronger against basically everything in G10. Some I'd say maybe with the exception of the Swiss see the Swiss against
the dollar basically unchanged on the morning. But then maybe that speaks to the defensiveness you see in our sweats.
want Freeman right now but we are watching Euro Swiss and we'll continue to do that for you this morning. Futures negative 30
known General Julian Lee as definitive on oil. He writes for Bloomberg opinion is to say an oil strategist that barely
describes his academic acuity in the market. Julian an open question on a crazy Friday in supply and demand. What is the
distinction you would write about. Next week.
I think next week it's a it's going to be about two things. It's going to be about
the will. They won't they revive the Iran nuclear deal and it's going to be very much about outlooks for demand and outlooks for
the broader economy. I mean I think. Right know this side of the Atlantic we're in we're in real difficulty. So a huge question
Julian for me.
Is it doable to measure demand or is it entirely after the fact where you have to wait for the time to go on to
really see what the demand did. Can you get out front on demand analysis.
I don't think you can get out front. Really on measuring demand. You know even if you look at trying
to measure demand historically that is notoriously difficult. I mean you say revisions to demand five years and more in the
So it's always on demand much much more of an estimation game on. So people will be looking at
you know all sorts of outlooks of other things to get a read on demand. What about we focus so much on demand in recent weeks
Julian given the narrative out there about growth slowing. Are we are we overlooking how constrained supply still is.
I think there's a there's certainly in some circles that a concern that we are doing just that.
I mean you know Bloomberg
TV had this this interview earlier this week with the new Secretary-General of AU Pair who said basically we have no spare
capacity or almost none. We've got European Union sanctions on Russian crude due to come into effect in December. We've had a
rebound in the last month or so in Libyan output but that remains fragile. That could be gone again in almost the blink of
an eye. We still in what has so far been a mercifully quiet hurricane season in the Gulf of Mexico.
But you know that's
still not over. I was you know I was on the coast of Florida close to the
Louisiana border last summer and I ran away from a hurricane then. So I you know I caught the edge of one of a big hurricane
could could tear through and undo some real damage to production there. There is a lot of fragility on the production side. But
Shery Ahn I want to wrap things up with the reality check that we could get on the European front come September after the
summer vacations are complete and hopefully the likes of Spain Italy Portugal Greece can get as much money as soon as they can
because Judy and the talk that I'm hearing is that we are going to go to some serious effort to reduce consumption during the
ideas that are being thrown around at the moment.
What you need to pay attention to.
Well I think I think many of these ideas all are around natural gas rather than oil
and electricity too. One of the things that we're seeing is more oil being used to generate electricity and industrial heat where
you can start saving everything is important. You know I think we all going to see
people turning the lights off in office buildings people turning the lights off on
iconic buildings that are floodlit. We still don't seem to be seeing a great deal done to retrofit insulation in homes
certainly not in the UK. And I don't think in many other places that obviously is a longer term
solution but it's an important one. I think we you know we need to start getting serious ahead of this winter about saving
energy about about using energy much more efficiently. Four day workweek. Is that what we're heading towards. I don't see that
yet. Working from home more perhaps that's a real possibility. You
know I think the pandemic has shown that for many people that is a realistic possibility.
And we may well see people asked to do
that again under a very different reason. Unreal. Gillian thank you. Gillian Liza with the latest out of London. T.K. the
prospect of some real effort to curtail energy consumption in Europe later this year. You know we're making jokes about the
foliage John. Nothing about this is going to be funny. Oh absolutely. Mean this was like the only thing I can come up with
John is what folks. It's Lando said the morning of the invasion. This war in Ukraine and David folk it's land. I said you're
going to see a fiscal impulse from Europe that no one living understands.
That's where we're heading. When a Shery Ahn just
said that Caylee. The pandemic playbook is that in a certain way this is just a very very different issue. It's very different.
And yes we know that demand can be reined in by working from home and people not commuting. But again this is the seismic
shift in supply and the ability to access energy to power. Economies working from home can't solve it all. Demand reduction
that the European Union needs to do in order to get consumption down to levels that can actually be matched with the supply and
the inventories available. That's going to be a really really hard effort on monetary policy. And fiscal policy will look very
very different to what it looks like back at spring 2020.
If you're just tuning in we are lower but down nine tenths of 1
percent on the S&P gaining you towards the weekend. It looks like we're about to close the week with a weaker loss. Says we
were coming into Friday positive by about a tenth of 1 percent. Futures even into that were down by nine cents of one per cent
on the S&P on the NASDAQ 100 0 down by let's call it 1 full percentage points. John I want to walk through this is important
as we've heard people say for stocks move the market. The experts in the Dow I don't believe they've ever been wider were
the Standard Poor's 500. As for stocks with a market cap of 90 percent and the four of the 30 Dow stocks John make up twenty
nine point four percent of the index. That is ridiculous. And one is a ridiculous price point. Yet we still exploded because
it's a fabric of America. The markets are focused on the idea that the economy is softer
and that the Fed is not quite done yet.
As we've seen stocks bounce back and as we've seen some of the most sensitive areas
the market bounce back that's going against one of the things the Fed is trying to accomplish right now. I just don't see how
the Fed is going to be able to actually bring inflation back down to 2 percent. The Fed never stops hiking rates when the
real Fed funds rate is still negative. Central banks all powerful institutions but clumsy institutions.
This is Bloomberg Surveillance with Tom Keene Jonathan Ferro and Lisa Abramowicz. Good morning everyone. Jonathan Ferro Lisa
Abramowicz and Tom Keene Kailey Leinz in for Lisa Abramowicz. Don't ask the CDC if the pandemic is over. Ask Mary Barra and
General Motors John. It is a wonderful symbol of how this nation moves forward. They've lacked for Tom and Ford did this at the
end of 2021 is taking some time for them to catch up. They halted that pay out back in spring of 2020. And it's back GM to
reinstate the quarterly dividend at 9 cents a share. Resuming the share buyback as well a two year hiatus. T.K. it's back.
if you want to go there it's the end of the pandemic I guess on that front. The operative sooner is a good word for me is
opportunistic. There it is. Plan to resume opportunistic share repurchases. John Daniel lives just today told us he thinks a
tax on share buybacks really doesn't matter. It's noise. And there's Murray Barr. Doing a tech equivalent to a tech
equivalent may be at a much much smaller size town. The tech firms are doing it at a much much bigger level.
and rallied hard off the lows. And now some we start to fate. We're down by about eight tenths of one percent on the S&P this
morning on the NASDAQ down one full percentage point GM positive 3 percent. Call it 2.5 in the premarket. Celebrate celebrate.
Let's do it. I mean come on. It's a sign of attractive sign here. Now we do a john within a market that's challenging Janka.
We jumped affects. Kagan was not the day to check.
But let's just talk about the import on a summer Friday. This is not dull.
These are markets on the foreign exchange move and this is super defensive. And we're seeing the dollar rip into G10 this
morning. We've seen that many times throughout this year. It's happening again this morning. Sterling down by about eight
tenths of one percent in sterling weakness. Euro dollar negative about a third of one per cent. But the data well Europe has to
go through later this year. All right. Well we're all bracing for it's not pretty. A little Caylee lines all in. I looked at
the JP Morgan Emerging Market Index and the E M enjoys strong dollar as well or it's getting brutalized by it. Every single
Asian currency for example weaker against the dollar on the date. You just take a look at the South Korean wine. It had a 13
year low relative to the U.S. dollar. And a lot of that has to do not just with the haven demand for the dollar but also the
weakness potentially coming from China.
The Chinese yuan I should mention offshore weakest level since September 2012 Mark
Gurman within the stock boom and the stock reset. We're going to get to Patrick Armstrong in a moment. So let's jump into it.
John I'm going to suggest right now John. Off the beaten path bit dog with his first bad day and age is twenty three thousand
down to a 21000 handle. Maybe that's a signal to what this trading day looks like in line with what's happened with risk
Mark Gurman some year over in Italy and the UK and Germany year to hire much much higher. And equities are struggling this
morning on the S&P. And on the NASDAQ case all about next week. Now Santa Chairman Pound next Friday at Jackson Hole Wyoming. I
wonder if we're certain on that. Yes I do agree about Jackson Hole and I get all that but maybe there's some other noise out
there as well. John I agree with you.
It is about Europe. And and I noticed that Netherlands nat gas even laid out the new
appalling Spanish chairman Powell navigate those issues. Well this this is the heart of the matter. A week John I'll do that
over a beverage of my choice last night. This came up. He's giving a speech is central banker to the world. He said yes
because if he doesn't have a very tough speech right now given what's happening in China and what's happening in Europe he's
not going to throw the garden Bailey under the bus given the war in Ukraine. I would suggest it'll be an allergic speech about
the pressures that they face right now. An important interview with Patrick Armstrong CIO of Flory Wealth. Patrick I want to
cut to the chase. The level of gloom now approximates a level of gloom of early June. Can you be long equities. I'm net long
equities where I have completely flexible mandates. We've got one fund where I can be short or long and we're 20 percent long
net. So I've got actually 50 percent of my portfolio on long equities and I've got 30 percent in shorts.
And there's some
extremely cheap stocks out there that I've not seen in decades really. They could come in like Moller. Maersk is trading at
less than two times earnings today. It's paying me a 12 percent dividend yield. It's buying back shares. It's probably going to
pay a special dividend that it will announce later this year. So it's got a lot of cyclical risk rate.
Rates are going to
collapse. Market trends are going to collapse starting today. I think those rates don't collapse until we're into next year. I
think supply chains remain challenged. A lot of bottlenecks. There's an amount of goods in the world that need. To be shipped
there's not enough shipping capacity oil and gas stocks. Exact same scenario and maybe not to the same extent. Markets pricing
in oil plummeting in the future. I don't know if it will. You've not seen demand destroyed yet. Supply is not coming on stream
and these companies are just producing massive cash flow every day.
If Patrick it sounds like you're still long inflation.
Well I think inflation's plateaued in the United States and the strong dollar lower commodity prices are going to see you're on
your prints continue to go down in Europe. In the UK commodity prices haven't fallen in the same way because the currencies
have fallen and electricity prices are jumping in. European natural gas is moving higher. So I think you've got a lot of
stagflation. Any forces that are remaining in Europe where the US is probably past the worst of that eventually. Just how bad
is the story in Europe and how bad is it relative to the price of a story in the market.
I don't think the markets really
priced it and how bad it can be in Europe unless something dramatic changes where you do get Russian gas into Europe again.
It manufacturing's going to slow hiring is going to slow. There's going to be brownouts and blackouts. People told to work
from home. All of those things are negative for the economy obviously. And
it's just Germany's going to solve that reliance on Russian natural gas.
But it's just not going to be in 2022 in the winter
of 2023. It's going to be another year and a half before they can get all the other measures in place that they're not reliant
on Russian natural gas. On the subject of Europe Patrick one of the lines in your note that stood out to me was the market has
the ECB hiking while the Fed cuts in 2023. Dot dot dot. No way. What do you think is more likely that neither is hiking next
year or that BOVESPA. I think neither will be hiking probably when we get to 2023. The U.S. economy is slowing. It's still
growing. The employment situation still looks pretty robust. That 49 percent of small companies say they're they're having
trouble filling job openings. So there's anecdotal evidence about layoffs coming. P.W. sees TWC surveys talking about half
of companies doing layoffs next year but companies aren't being able to fill the job openings they have.
The Fed's going to be
hiking in September maybe once more after that. But while the economy slows and the rest of Europe falls into a deep recession
I don't think the Fed is going to be doing much in terms of hikes next year. But there's no way the ECB will be hiking
without backdrop. Well I understand how the data could lead to a picture of the Federal Reserve backing off but does that leave
the job on inflation undone.
Yes so Powell characterized where rates were after the last take
is neutral. I don't think that could have been scripted. I don't think it's
at neutral. I think if we do another 75 basis points you can plausibly say that's neutral. If the economic situation does
weaken in the rest of the world you've got a really strong dollar that continues to mute out inflation as well. So strong
dollar means all your imports are a little bit cheaper and that is disinflationary.
So you can see that scenario where the Fed
doesn't have to hike next year just because the dollar strengthening and the rest of Europe is probably in a pretty bad
economic situation. Patrick how useful is this conversation around neutral neutral such a fuzzy concept. And that's about a
short run neutral level. A longer run neutral level. How useful how valuable is that conversation right now.
Well if you get any insight on to what the Fed thinks is neutral that's very important because that's the guy that will guide you
on where they're going to put policy. I don't think Powell believes it's at neutral right now. You've seen a lot of
liquidity in markets. You've seen mean stocks rallying. You've seen no earnings tech rallying and you've not seen the Fed
meaningfully reduce its balance sheet which is the other thing.
They indicated they would be doing which hasn't really happened
yet. But we're neutral. Is it something no one will ever know even looking historically you never know exactly where it is but
it does guide the Fed and what they're trying to achieve while they're I guess driving half blindfolded. Patrick good to catch
up sir as always. Patrick Armstrong there. Perrine whilst Patrick mentioned that P.W. C. survey we've mentioned it a few
times through the last few hours so let's go through it. They basically surveyed some 700 U.S. executives and board members
across a range of industries. And this is the breakdown. Half of respondents said that reducing headcount or plan to 52
percent have implemented hiring freezes. More than four in 10 are rescinding job offers and a similar amount are reducing or
eliminating the sign on bonuses that had become common to attract talent in the tight job market we've been talking about
for the last company. Yes Tom. So there's some of the numbers selected industries that are still booming but they're selected
and it shows a disparity in American frankly comes right over to the political ballet.
John you didn't ask me about the neutral
level. Tom what about the neutral. I believe in Newtonian 19th century economics need to translate though. I believe in what's
called plug and chug economics. And the plug and chug of a neutral equation is a comedy.
There's just too many moving parts in the ballet of what is neutral policy. Well you saw the pushback some from Larry
Summers Mohamed El-Erian off the back of his comments. I believe you've got an equation. You put in one thing you put in two
things. Maybe at some cocktail talk you're putting in three or four or five things. You're assuming this doesn't mean that
John. It's just it's just silly. Have you noticed Katie that Tom's cocktail talk is very different to our cocktail. Yeah I
wouldn't exactly call it casual cocktail. It's just that you're putting in Jihye Lee this summer that we're doing two things
this summer series that were written. I talked to John Micklethwait about this a spectacular Claire Jackson effort on
John Rain the pharaohs first came over really interesting about the English Civil War in a room I'm revisiting
because of all this odd dynamic zoom and skews thermodynamics because there's some movement there which was a stupid. The
study of the neutral rate is incredibly useful stuff. It is looking for it said the person is what is when the Red Sox are
in less play so much in baseball and you start reading. So I get the cliff notes Tom when. Really interesting stuff. Yeah well
I'll take a round of those notes. Katie features down nine tenths of one percent on the S&P this morning. Good morning. T
Well it's defensive and their yields are high by 8 basis points to 96 47. Coming up on this RTX market a dollar stronger. Jane
Foley of Rabobank from New York this is blowing back. Keeping you up to date with news from around the world with the
cash read on which you get Fed officials are offering mixed signals about the next interest rate increase. That two day
meeting is set for September the 20th. One of the most hawkish policymakers St. Louis Fed President James Bullard.
Back to the
big move. He told The Wall Street Journal this should be another 75 basis point hike. Meanwhile Kansas City's Esther George was
more cautious. She said the Fed has already done a lot of tightening. China's president Xi Jinping and Russia's Vladimir
Putin are planning to attend a Group of 20 summit later this year in Indonesia. That's according to Indonesia's president
Joko Widodo. In an interview with Bloomberg. That presence would set up a showdown with President Biden and other leaders opposed
to Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Meanwhile European intelligence officials say Russia is probably using a nuclear power plant in
southern Ukraine to shield troops and equipment. That's a tactic that undermines the security of the plant. The nuclear facility
is Europe's largest the US UK and you have demanded access to the plant for international inspectors which has a bed bath and
Plunging investors reacted after news that billionaire Ryan Cohen has sold his stake in the struggling retailer. Cohen
pocketed 68 million dollars a 56 percent gain in an investment he had held for seven months. But retail investors are feeling
the pain. Their net purchases. Bed Bath and Beyond surge. The last three weeks. And Footlocker is surging today. The athletic
wear retailer says CEO Richard Johnson will retire. He'll be replaced by former Ulta Beauty head Mary Tillman who also once
ran global marketing for McDonald's. Foot Locker posted quarterly earnings that beat expectations. Global news 24 hours
a day on air and on Bloomberg Quicktake powered by more than twenty seven hundred journalists and analysts and more than a
hundred and twenty countries.
Rich kid Gupta. This is Bloomberg. I think they're going to continue to raise rates. I don't think
they're going to take any pause anytime soon. I'm sure they're not going to get it exactly right. That's what they're trying to
do. I think if they're going to make a mistake it's going to be on
tightening a little bit too much because they really want to make sure that they bring inflation down. Randy Kroszner that a
former Fed Reserve governor from New York City. Good morning. This morning at Tom Keene I'm Jonathan Ferro together with Candy
Lyons. Grandma back with us next week is the price action. We're down with lower by nine tenths of one per cent on the S&P 500 on
the Nasdaq by one full percentage point. Look at you time by eight basis points much higher over in Europe on burns Italian
beekeepers on gilts in the UK. And look at foreign exchange euro dollar hunk hanging on to parity and sterling breaking down for
a third straight session a weaker pound sterling.
Here we go on that currency pair against the dollar. Cable 1 1837 T.K. and
negative eight tenths of one per cent. Our interview of the day. James Foley joins us now from Rabobank us. Get right to a.
John's got a lot of technical questions. I've got one. There's just simple there's a large vector of weaker or weaker work
weaker sterling and then it rolls over. At what level is the tipping point you have in your head where things fall apart for
Governor Bailey. Well to be honest is an awful lot of pressure on Governor Bailey
already certainly from that list. He looks as if she could be the next prime minister of the UK. But I think we could be
heading down to 115 maybe 114 on on cable. And that would add and I don't mean to interrupt but if we go to 114 is that a
trend and a controlled trend or two things to borrow phrase from politics unravel.
You know I think if we're at 115 114 a lot of
that actually really does depend on the dollar and specifically on euro dollar because what we're seeing at the moment is euro
dollar dips. And of course it's been dipping. It's very difficult for cable to hang on in there. It's been dragged lower
too. So a lot of this is a dollar move certainly over the last week. That said there is a lot of sterling weakness in the pound
has really been suffering. I would say for the last four or five years since the 2016 Brexit referendum study has never really
been able to recover. Investment has never really been able to recover. Investors are still quite skeptical I think of the pro
Brexit UK economy and the government that we've had hasn't really been able to convince investors to come back. You have to
bear in mind that the UK has got a current account deficit and if that was overseas savers are looking in at the UK and they're
not liking what they're seeing.
Well you know Sterling is likely to adjust low and I think that's the situation that the pound
finds itself in. And without the growth without the investment I think sterling could remain pretty weak for a while. Gentle rate
hikes make a difference. Are you saying they don't. I don't think they do. I mean if you go back to May we had admitted in
as expected interest rate hike then it was a 25.
Back then in May. And Sterling really David the reason it dived low it was
because the Bank of England at that point in its quarterly review downgraded the inflation. So we downgraded the the growth
number. And if we go if we fast forward to August the next quarterly review this is the one where we have that. The
governor saying we're going to have a five quarter recession. And again you know Sterling reacted badly because you know if we
think that a lot of this is about the lack of investment growth in the UK investors need something to hang their hats on that.
They want to see improvements and productivity improvements in growth. And that's not what they're seeing right now. And that's
I think why Sterling is really so so weak. Well in the beauty obviously is in a tough spot in that regard. But the ECB is to
there is a question of whether they can do anything to support the euro if we get a break of parity once again.
bottom. Well you know I think if we were to break parity I think there's
every reason that we could fall quite fast maybe towards that 95. There's some options that are below that which could trigger
such a move. And I think it's I think you're right really to make some comparisons between at the Bank of England and where
the ECB could find itself perhaps in a few months time because if we look at the situation in the eurozone it's all about
energy. We know that if we do have blackouts in Germany's industry groups over the winter months if we do have the market
panicking about what that would mean for that for growth or lack of growth in the Eurozone. But that wouldn't necessarily do
anything to bring inflation down so we could have a hawkish ECB and that sort of scenario. But that wouldn't be a scenario which
we which which would be beneficial for the euro.
So again it could be that the growth worry overtakes the outlook for the
currency over and above the hawkishness of the central bank. Well and there's a question of causation here. Is it. Is it
weakness of the euro or strength of the dollar. More so. And on that point where do you think the peak is on the VIX. Why.
Well you know I think we're going to remain strong at least for the next six months.
And I think you're right. For instance if
we look at the. Currency performance today as the euro is holding in relatively
well actually better than in many of the other G10 peers. So this is about dollar strength right now. That causes euro
weakness in there. And the energy story is really important. But this is about dollar strengthen. And to be honest I think for a
while the dollar has got these two pronged factors driving it. And the first is of course the Fed and now the markets again
thinking that the Fed could be higher for longer.
In terms of interest rates up maybe it needs to keep interest rates high.
Next year next year in order to chip to really get that inflation back in the box. But the other factor is a safe haven.
And don't forget at the start of the week we had a lot of poor Chinese data. Now that's really bad for emerging markets. It's
really bad for world growth. And that is you know part of the attraction of the dollar the safe haven flows. So I think both
of those things together have been pushing the dollar higher. And I don't think the dollar's done yet.
Jim with that in mind
what's the downside on a currency power like cable. Now once you take out the mid July lows. What next.
You know I do think 115 114. You know we could certainly see that. But it does depend on where you are guys because there's a
bit more of equal battle at the moment between the poor fundamentals and the sterling fundamentals in the euro. So I
think the guide here will be Euro Dollar John off her wonderful comments. Jane you'll love this. I just did a log interpolation
of euro sterling over at a sterling dollar. You're ready John 111 111. If you get sterling to strengthen against euro ism as
Foley talked about it roughly and triple leads to a 111 James Foley of Rabobank. Jane awesome to catch up to big numbers in a
mix right now. If you just tuning again equities are softer. We've seen moves like this a few times throughout this year.
We're down about 1 percent on the S&P said it many times on the NASDAQ was down about one point one two percent.
But it's really
on a strength at that euro dollar it on to parity here at dollar 1 0 0 5 1 and sterling some clinging onto one 18 against the
U.S. dollar one 1828. It makes all the more interesting you know 117 116 and
the degrees of freedom that they have. John where are we on the election John. Thank God it's shorter than the U.S. but is it
like this is like a big weekend for us and someone have this wrapped up by the end of this month into September.
Once you get
into September we'll have it all ready to go for you. OK right. When the callers are calling it a leadership contest Tom maybe
not an election time like you know the crowning of the prime minister or the Premier League visit. You wanna go and watch
spurts the fall foliage. What we should do Tom is skip school on Monday and go on what she night at Liverpool Nestle Michigan
Tech. Let's go to that cave. He's got the rains on Monday.
We could take in the fall foliage in Scotland. Okay. Mean look this
is Bloomberg. Life in New York City this morning. Good morning to you. Lights
on the data front. We're counting it down to Jackson Hole Wyoming and the annual Fed get together. Chairman's now
confirmed to speak at 10:00 a.m. Eastern Time next Friday. From New York this morning.
Good morning Tom Keene. A candy line some
Jonathan Ferro defensive this morning. It down nine tenths of one percent on the S&P on the NASDAQ 100 down by one point one
equity s yields heading north up a basis points to 96 66 on a ten year dollar stronger euro dollar 1 0 0 5 3 and commodities
softer crude lower. Eighty nine dollars a barrel tumbled down one point sixty five per cent on the day. Let's get right to it.
In currency markets really moving right now to be interesting to see what we do really in the next one hour to the market opening
DAX solidly above 1 away. We're watching Sterling John. I want 1831.
We will speak to him the day before Powell speaks in a data dependent federal will change to next Thursday. South Carpenter
of Morgan Stanley will join us. We will be in Jackson Hole. He'll be cool calm and collected on the East Coast. Were
thrilled Mr. Carpenter could join us this morning. Carpenter your note is frightening. The brewing storm you talk about it
sounds like winds of war from 1939 and all find the brewing storm.
What what is the distinction now of this August of 2000
22. Yeah I mean I think for markets August is always a little liquidity moment. So you're going to see all sorts of choppiness
there. But I think when it comes to the macro frame you've got three key economies in the world. You've got the U.S. you've got
Europe you've got China. China we know is struggling. They had a contraction in Q2. They've got this burgeoning housing problem
that they're trying to solve. The PPACA just had to ease policy again and a bit of a surprise move. Now we think Beijing through
various sorts of policy both monetary and fiscal will come to the rescue. But the question is when does inflection point
happen. And do we get a big rebound or is it sort of shifting to Europe. Right. You've got this restriction and gas flow from
Russia's invasion of Ukraine that's crippling the European economy.
We have a baseline view of a recession in Europe Q4
being outright contraction Q1 being another contractions. And that's not a green light. So the U.S. right now pretty solid. We
got retail sales report in line with our expectations. The consensus a little bit.
Non-farm payrolls were super strong and over 500000. But is good news good news in this case. I don't know that it has been very
clear they need to slow the economy down. So the stronger it is now the more Hang Seng they Emma Chandra. You know we always
look at our gas so we try to figure out from the back of their bookshelf. Seth Carpenter what they're actually thinking. And
it's good to see that you've got Tony Crescenzi of PIMCO Stadium's fixed income Bible over your right shoulder. What does
the bond market tell an economist like you.
I mean I think right now the bond market is really struggling to
read the tea leaves about what's happening we saw the sense of relief in markets. I think when we got CPI tipping over and when
the market hurt the Fed saying gosh we're taking a balanced approach. We care about both the growth in the economy and
inflation. But what I think the market didn't hear enough of is the way inflation over the next two years is going to come down
to the Fed's target is only if you get enough slowing in growth. And so as a result you know we think the peak rate of the market
is priced is about right. But the cuts in the market that the market has in place for a lot of next year that's not really
consistent with our forecasts. Well on that point says the market thinks that the Fed is going to get to the terminal rate
and then very quickly thereafter come down from it.
We've been having the conversation all week as to whether or not that's
really true. How long do you think they have to stay up there. I mean our baseline forecast is that they're there for a year so
they get to the peak rate in December and then the first very grudging you know 25 basis point easing off in terms of a guy
comes a year later in December of 2023. I mean the short answer is no one knows for sure. We think the U.S. economy has a fair
amount of momentum behind it. And more importantly as I was saying before they really do need to slow things down a lot.
They need to take job growth from 500000 per month down to something closer to 100000 per month or maybe even a little bit
below in order to get that real underlying trend inflation down. So they're going to have to stay tight for a while. How low do
you think realistically inflation will get.
Is three percent going to be the new 2 percent. So sadly this is where you get
the egg headed economists talking about the two different measures of inflation CPI versus BCE. I think 3 percent on CPI
is very very possible. I don't think the Fed is going to be happy to just lie RTS inflation which is really what they said
that 2 percent target 4. I don't think they're going to be happy to read P.C. inflation settle land at 3 percent. They'll be
happy when it gets down to 3 percent. If it's on a downward track but they're not going to declare victory if it's hanging
out at 3 percent and not budging. Frame your in Alexander's x axis to me. The big mistake here is
that now now now of how policy is going to move.
Is this really a six quarter eight quarter even 12 quarter past
that we're on for a longer time. That's that's a great way of phrasing. And I think one issue that's important for everyone to
keep in mind is that monetary policy does in fact work with a lag. We know that markets are pricing in now at peak rates.
That's close to where we think the peak rate is just over a three point six percent. But in terms of the actual drag on the
economy from that policy stance it hasn't shown here completely yet. We've seen it in housing. That's important. We're going to
see it a bit in durable goods and we'll see it more in durable goods.
But that still has to play out. So it is not what's going
on right now that matters. It is in fact as you say what happens over the next two quarters over the next four quarters and. Yes
or ultimately over the next six months. How will corporations and their investment react to a pernicious 4 or 5 percent
inflation in the United Kingdom. Everyone from LA's trust to Mr. Suna suggest there's been a dearth of investment in the UK.
we going to see a dearth of investment in the United States. So I don't think we're going to see a dearth of investment but
we are we should buy all all expectations see a slowing in that investment spending. What do you see in the macro data.
Typically business investment spending tends to follow the overall trajectory of the economy. And so if we're right that
the slowing in housing the slowing in durable goods spending and with interest slowing in jobs leads to an overall slowing in
aggregate demand. And absolutely businesses should be looking around and saying OK there's going to be less of a need for that
sort of aggressive investment spending.
I don't think it drops off of a cliff.
I don't think we're going to have a massive shortfall. The UK has its own idiosyncratic issues let's say but which we
should see things starting to slow down as aggregate demand slows down and businesses pay attention to that. S.F. we all
know I read a lot of Morgan Stanley a share a lot of it on this program. I was dangerous. BOVESPA. I'm wondering a set of costs.
You'd say that. I'm wondering when I received that note from you that says global recession.
That's the base case.
How close are we to you sending that note. Ghosh The S.E.C. would get mad at me if I previewed forthcoming
research. So I will say this. We we definitely had a global recession as one of the scenarios when we put out our mid-year
outlook in April. And we are very much moving closer and closer to that scenario. I mean the gas situation in Europe matters a
lot and we have a recession in Europe as our forecast. There's clear downside risks to China from their housing situation
something that's gotten worse since we wrote that note. So we're moving in that direction.
I think it's too soon yet no doubt because we're essentially what this means is carpet has got to published before next
That's true. So that's all we needed before Jackson Hole A Seth. Awesome to catch up sir. As always something
happened to that of Market Stanley in the mid-year outlook from Morgan Stanley. Tom they talked about it the prospect of a
global recession. We're getting closer to that bear case. I think for a lot of people and the surprise to the downside
we're not talking about the states. Europe has been a base case problem for a number of months now.
The surprise to the downside
Tom is coming out of China. I'm going to do a shout out to our good friend Ellen Zentner who's giving me fly fishing lessons
for Jackson Hole. And Mr. John was transitory. And to her great credit she turned on a dime in the spring of I think it was last
year. I can't shop now. But it was amazing how Zander said no this is not what's going to happen. Don't tell me you'll never
see me. At least I hope you'll never see me. Have a go to strategists and economists for being wrong. I'm just interested
in the process that I've seen. Let's put it. This is really important how it's developing. Yes. My frustration is while some
with some of the work coming out of market Milanovic show for JP Morgan that that line from him and his note yesterday just
seemed to take a dig at some of his peers. Clearly something changed this year at the start of this year particularly with
the invasion of Ukraine by Russia.
The policies in response to that the prospect of a European recession these weren't on the
table as the base case in the way that they are now. And things change and you have to adapt the framework and rethink what's
going to happen. And that's just normal. That's the process isn't Greece and.
This because people are wrong. Jim Cramer over the Death Star John has been really good about this just like baseball. You're
walking back to the dugout 60 percent 70 percent of the time. I mean people are wrong a lot. Is it like the Red Sox this year.
Mark Gurman the Red Sox are walking back to the dugout. About seven 74 percent of that team T.K..
They're rebuilding. They're
rebuilding. They're rebuilding. This is how tough the sport is. But the point is man you the same way. I mean as manual
rebuilding they cost a lot of money to rebuild a Premier League team that's got to compete with some big big spending club. Yeah
it's going to cost them a lot money to rebuild. And Tom I think they've got about 10 days left to try and rebuild. Good luck to
them. Is that like when the trees when the transfer window window closes. I do not know that. I'm learning everyday futures
right now down eight or nine tenths of one percent on the S&P defensive toll on the NASDAQ Scarlet Fu. You know Centerpoint
get a started to get started. Heather Plant I think Bournemouth. Kim I can't. Somebody I can't pronounce. Someone you can't
pronounce. And then the big games Monday right. Liverpool. Yes. It's got to be the big game.
Kelly thank you for being with us.
Or should I say thank you for tolerating us the last three days. Again the extra chef. We appreciate it. She's aged. What can I
say. Lisa Abramowicz holocaust its roots or hanging out with me and even more so hanging out with you I. And perhaps twice as
much. She's got it. She's smarter than us. She's going foliage while she's white. That's not to say I learned the most about
the folly of pattern. That's what people tuned in for this week. Mostly what she got was hate mail from Virginia Tech. Katie
sincerely thank you. And I'll catch up with you around the other about looking forward to that. A stack show coming up. Eric
Knutson of Neuberger Berman Etsy to our cash flow bank dances okay of AP advises dancer Su Keenan why this tech bubble needs
to pop. GUEST Will. We'll talk to him about that around the open about four New York futures down.
This is Bloomberg. Keeping you up to date with news from around the world with the
first word answers you could get to a judge says that parts of the FBI affidavit used to get a search warrant for Donald
Trump's estate should be unsealed. The judge has given the Justice Department a week to propose what should be blacked out.
News organizations and others have asked for it to be released even if your company is planning write offs. The one next door
is. That's according to a study by consulting firm P.W. C. Hall. More than 700 U.S. executives and board members and found that
half said they are reducing headcount or plan to. 52 percent have implemented hiring freezes.
General Motors is reinstating its dividend and restoring share buyback more than two years after they were suspended. Starting
September 15th the automaker will pay a quarterly dividend of 9 cents a share. GM halted its 38 cent payout in the early days of
the pandemic to conserve cash. And the largest maker of farm machinery Deere has cut its outlook for the full year. The
company warned of supply chain issues and high end production costs. DIA says it has been able to offset some of its problem
with price increases.
And California based fund manager PIMCO is using its deep pockets to buy assets that have been hurt by the
cost of living crisis. The firm is that more than two billion dollars to buy leverage debt backing consumer companies. The
bank struggled to offload. Bloomberg said it's part of his broader strategy to capitalize on depressed prices. Global news
24 hours a day on air and on Bloomberg Quicktake powered by more than twenty seven hundred journalists and IMF and more than 120
countries and which could get 10. This has been back. Couple of weeks is a month coming. Davis Is The Monkees on 40.
I'm done. I of the hard work that I've been doing for previous months. So they need to get back in control of the situation.
Howard needs to play when he's took a very focused game.
See Miss Josh is chief strategist principal global investors there.
With all the different opinions that we've seen this week. Kailey Leinz and Tom Keene Lisa Abramowicz is scheduled to be
off Hall's Monday. It's about 50/50 chance. We'll see. Or John Farrell is going off to another property right now. And this is
perfectly timed on a Friday in August where you need to recalibrate for September and beyond.
Barry Ritholtz joins us. He's with Master in Business a wonderful podcast. Running real money at Road holds wealth
management as well. Barry I give you the greatest credit for writing about the agony I faced a few years ago think 1975 and
1981 which was the comedy of defining the beginning of a bull market coming out of the horror of 73 74.
You write brilliantly
on the secular and the cyclical is secular just a long term view of the market.
No secular means that there are massive forces at work in society in the economy in the markets in the labor pool in the
consumer spending world. And history shows us that. Day to day is very noisy but the world moves in big waves. My favorite
examples post-war were two from 1946 to the mid 60s the build out of suburbia the rise of car culture the rise of civilian
aviation the electronics industry on and on and on. 40 million ISE returning home with the G.I. Bill and getting educated and
getting good jobs. That doesn't last a quarter or year. That goes for decades. So where are we right now. It reflected. Where
are we right now. Where's our G.I. Bill right now. Where's our Nifty 50. Whereas modern capitalism as compared to those eras we
lived. So we measure the start of a bull market when when a trading range ends and markets make new highs. And the secular
bull market that began in 2013 when all three indices surpassed the pre financial crisis high that ran until we hit an extra
malady which was the pandemic locked down.
And I don't believe in the 20 percent is a bull a bear market. That's just a made up
media. No there's no data says 20 percent is significant. You have 20 fingers and toes. So therefore based and we look at 20
percent when I look at what took place during the pandemic. Normally a 34 percent drop if it's caused by market or economic
factors is usually enough to say hey whatever preceded is over. But this was a meteor from outer space. This was you know an
extra naledi unrelated to markets or the economy. It had massive impact on that. So when I look at that as an extra reality and
then I look at the five trillion dollars in three different cares acts under two presidents that looks to me like a giant
reset. And it's very hard to be bearish there. The secular impact of all that money is going to have a huge impact for
years to come.
To say nothing of the three or four other spending packages including the infrastructure package which
will be in place. So we're looking as the first half of the year sell off as the cyclical bear within a longer secular bull. And
hey you know what's 20 22 percent between friends when you're already up you know 300 or 400 percent and all of the underlying
foundations are positive. Now maybe we see a change from the Fed the rising inflation rates going higher and perhaps a recession
next year or later this year. So that could help slow down this secular bull market. But from my framework it's very hard to
look at this and say we're in a new bear market like sixty six to eight two or two thousand to 2013. OK so Barry something
tells me you're not going to give much credence to the idea or the attempts to define whether or not this is a bear market
rally or not that we've seen over the last two months. But whatever you want to call it it has been a rally a surprisingly
strong one one that seems to be going directly against the Federal Reserve.
I thought we weren't supposed to be fighting
the Fed. I mean what do you make of what the market is is not hearing from Federal Reserve policymakers. You know there is
this tendency to anthropomorphize size Mr. Market. And I think that you have to look at the markets as the probabilistic risk
reward bets that are made by the collection of investors. And I think what if. If you want an interpretation of what the market
is saying is hey there is a recession out there but it's a short shallow recession it. It will slow growth down and maybe it it
slows profits down. But the underlying strength within the U.S. economy is just too powerful to get too bearish at these levels.
And besides even at 2.5 percent. Is that what you want to you want to tie up your money in treasuries when inflate.
assume inflation peaked and is now 5 percent 6 percent. Oh I'm only losing 3 percent a year if I buy treasuries. That's not
very appealing and it's very easy to invert the yield curve starting from zero. Really good. So there folks look for them
from very red holds and secular and cyclical bear markets. Very well. Thank you so much. Kelly you're in on time. We've got
left. Let's really focus here on bitcoin. You've got to frame up crypto for next Tuesday. You're going to be your Tuesday. I am.
Are you on holiday like everybody else. I'll be on holiday the week after time. But yeah we're gonna have a conversation and
focus on mining actually when it comes to Bitcoin mining because a lot of what has led to the strength of crypto currencies in
recent weeks is the idea of a theory emerge which is going to move us to proof of stake not proof of work which is what mining
is about. But clearly you're seeing that deflate today. Bitcoin is down about 8 percent or south of 20 to. Thousand. Once again.
So it definitely speaks to the broader risk of sentiment and defensiveness we are seeing and you're seeing that evident not
just in crypto currencies but fiat currencies as well Tom.
Without really a dollar strength. Well let's talk let's talk
about Renault currencies which is that they threw the miners out of China right. Yes they did. Were they mining this week. Well a
lot of them are mining in Texas which has been a difficult problem considering all of the climate issues that Texas has.
Some of them are in the Arctic as well. There is a whole environmental energy conversation.
We'll get into it on Tuesday
time. But I'm going to have my weekend. This is a valuable show. Folks I really can't say enough about this. Crypto is trying to
not be a cheerleader for the industry but to bring diverse opinions about these raging debates. I'll be mining for Bitcoin
this weekend you know with that bill.
All right. Stay with us. This is Bloomberg. Good morning. Day four of the Western and Southern Open Madison Keys was the
headline maker Thursday as she claimed her first career victory over a real world number one taken out you guessed wrong tech in
straight sets. The American was always in control winning 10 consecutive games
in the middle of the match before closing it out 6 4 after just under an hour and a half on court. Up next dramatic Wimbledon
champ Elena Rybak. Enough elsewhere and a Radu Kanu is out. Last year's winner at Flushing Meadows went down to Jessica. Good.
The New York native had just too much for the Brits. She'll be facing qualifier Caroline Garcia for a spot in the final four.
And Taylor Fritz flew the red white and blue as he edged Andre Rube lived the Californian.
Fighting back from a set down in a
two and a half hour marathon top seed Daniel Medvedev awaits in the Elite Eight. I'm Aaron Cost Corelli..